Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World
Global
Americas
United States
Canada
Mexico
Europe
Euro Area
United Kingdom
Asia Pacific
China
Japan
Australia

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Analysis
Blog
Views
Calendar

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

Market Musing, Asia Pacific

08 Aug 2023

History doesn’t repeat, but…

“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes”. Based on our analysis of seasonal performance this statement seems to hold true for several currencies and other important financial markets. For the aficionados although we found no ‘stable statistical seasonality’, there seems to be a lot of ‘coincidence’ as a variety of things such as production and trade trends, financial year end related flows, asset allocation changes, and/or thinner liquidity conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer or Christmas period compound or counteract unfolding macroeconomic developments. Our Seasonality Heatmaps, provided at the bottom of this note, illustrate the average monthly performance of...

Read More Read More
12 Jul 2023

Cross-Check: AUD/NZD – Diverging trends

As was universally expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its Official Cash Rate at 5.5% at today’s meeting. This is the first time the RBNZ has not raised the OCR since the August 2021 meeting. The RBNZ went early and hard, delivering an eye-watering 525bps worth of rate hikes between October 2021 and May 2023. As a result, policy settings in NZ are well into ‘restrictive’ territory (i.e. above the estimated equilibrium ‘neutral’ rate). From our perspective, the underlying message from the RBNZ and developments across the NZ economy suggest that without another positive inflation shock the move...

Read More Read More
26 Jun 2023

JPY: Asymmetric risks building

It has been one-way traffic for the JPY over recent weeks. The JPY has depreciated rather sharply against a range of other currencies, including the USD, AUD, and SGD since the Bank of Japan disappointed markets by maintaining its ultra-accommodative stance in late-April. Over the same period interest rate expectations for other major central banks like the RBA, Bank of England, and US Fed have risen (to differing degrees) due to ongoing inflation pressures, while market sentiment has also generally been positive. Given where USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, SGD/JPY, and the JPY more broadly are now trading, we think the distribution of...

Read More Read More
15 Jun 2023

AUD: break-out or bull-trap?

After a rather torrid May, the AUD has sprung back to life over the past few weeks. At ~$0.6820 the AUD is around the top of its ~4-month range. The AUD has also outperformed on the crosses. AUD/EUR is near its highest level since mid-March, AUD/GBP has moved above its 50-day moving average (~0.5341), diverging interest rate and macro trends have propelled AUD/NZD over ~1.10 for the first time since late-February, AUD/CNH has touched a ~2-year high, and AUD/JPY is north of ~96 (heights it hasn’t been at since last September). There has been raft of important economic events and...

Read More Read More
02 Jun 2023

The RBA has more work to do

Since kicking its tightening cycle off in May 2022, the RBA has raised the cash rate by a cumulative 375bps. This has been the most abrupt rate hiking cycle since at least the 1980s, but there looks to be more work to do. Recent information is likely to force the RBA’s hand, and we expect another 50bps worth of rate hikes over coming months. This would take the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.35%, a high since late-2011, however higher household indebtedness means this level of rates should pack a far bigger punch than it used to. The upcoming 6...

Read More Read More

About

Contact

Data and information on this website is provided “as is” and for informational purposes only. Information on the website does not bind Corpay in any way; nor is it not intended as advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial products. Data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. All charts or graphs are from publicly available sources, or our proprietary data. Nothing in this material should be construed as investment, financial, tax, legal, accounting, regulatory or other advice or as creating a fiduciary relationship. Corpay disclaims any responsibility or liability to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on our use of the data in any way. You should contact your Corpay sales representative for clarification on the range of financial instruments available in your jurisdiction. Copyright Cambridge Mercantile Corp. 2022.