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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

Lofty heights

• Policy divergence. JPY continues to weaken with the BoJ’s stance continuing to diverge from the rest of the world. AUD near a multi-month high.• Fed talk. Chair Powell testifies to Congress this week. Markets still aren’t pricing in the Fed’s views. A shift up could give the USD some support.• China stimulus. More stimulus to support the faltering recovery is anticipated, but we think China may not meet the markets seemingly lofty thinking. US markets had a relatively quiet end to a busy week on Friday. US equities retreated from their 14-month highs (S&P500 -0.4%), while bond yields increased...

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Another hawkish ECB hike

• Weaker USD. ECB delivered another hawkish hike. Policy divergence between the ECB & US Fed has boosted the EUR & weighed on the USD.• AUD stronger. Compounding the softer USD was another strong local labour market report & expectations China could announce stimulus to boost growth.• BoJ today. No changes expected. But tweaks appear inevitable. JPY is at quite low levels. We think there are more upside than downside risks from here. US and European markets diverged overnight, with contrasting central bank expectations a driver. European equities eased back (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%) and bond yields rose after the ECB delivered...

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Fed’s ‘hawkish’ skip

• US Fed. Rates kept on hold, but the Fed’s message was ‘hawkish’. Fed is forecasting another ~50bps of hikes this year. Market pricing looks too low.• Intra-day volatility. Markets whipped around by the Fed decision. US retail sales & jobless claims tonight. Data could influence Fed expectations & the USD.• AUD events. Australian labour force & China activity data released today. ECB policy meeting is tonight with another 25bp rate hike expected. Markets whipped around overnight, with the US Fed policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference in focus. As was broadly expected, after hiking interest rates aggressively over...

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Will the US Fed ‘skip’ or surprise?

• Higher yields. Markets reprice BoE rate hike expectations after UK wage growth quickens. This supported GBP, and pushed AUD/GBP a bit lower.• US inflation. Headline CPI ‘mechanically’ falls, while core inflation is stickier. Tomorrows Fed meeting in focus. A ‘hawkish skip’ looks most likely.• AUD cross currents. AUD mixed overnight. The lift in USD/CNH remains a AUD headwind. A ‘hawkish’ Fed could see the AUD dip lower. There has been quite a bit of news to digest, with some developments, particularly in the UK, generating sharp market reactions. On net, US and European equities added to recent gains (S&P500...

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An action packed week ahead

• Positive vibes. Equities higher. The risk backdrop & repricing in RBA expectations has pushed the AUD towards the top of its multi-month range.• Inflation focus. US CPI due tonight. Base-effects should drag down annual headline inflation. But will core inflation hold up and rattle market nerves?• Event risk. There are several events on Thursday with the US FOMC decision, AU jobs report, China data batch, ECB meeting, and US retail sales on the schedule. A mixed performance across markets overnight, though the underlying tone was generally positive at the start of an action-packed week. US and European equities rose,...

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