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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

19 Sep 2023

US Fed in focus

• Some jitters. Rising oil prices & higher Canadian inflation boosted bond yields. Equities were flat. The USD consolidated & AUD ticked up.• US Fed. No policy change is anticipated tomorrow. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance & forecasts. Markets are already pricing a ‘higher for longer’ view.• Event radar. In addition to the US Fed over the next few days UK CPI (today) is released & the BoE meets (tomorrow). The BoJ meeting is on Friday. A few jitters across markets overnight ahead of tomorrows US Fed decision and press conference (4am and 4:30am AEST). Equities were flat...

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18 Sep 2023

Waiting game

• Quiet markets. US equities flat, bond yields mixed. AUD consolidates. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of this weeks offshore central bank meetings.• ECB signals. EUR a bit firmer following reports the ECB is looking at ways to mop up the QE driven excess liquidity in the banking system.• Local trends. RBA minutes today. Population growth is booming. GDP is a volume measure. This can partially offset the drag from higher rates. It has been a quiet start to what could be a busy week given the upcoming central bank meetings. European equities played a bit of catch up...

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17 Sep 2023

Central banks in the spotlight

• Mixed markets. US equities fell back with higher bond yields & jitters about the autoworkers strike weighing on sentiment. USD & AUD consolidated.• China data. The China activity data was generally better than expected. This supports our thinking that growth momentum could be bottoming out.• Event calendar. US Fed (Thurs morning AEST), BoE (Thurs AEST), & BoJ (Fri AEST) decisions in the spotlight. European/US PMIs (Fri) also in focus. Mixed fortunes across asset classes and regions on Friday. In contrast to the lift by most major Asian and European stock markets, US equities fell back, led by the tech-sector...

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14 Sep 2023

ECB: end of the line

• Positive vibes. Risk markets supported by signals last nights ECB rate hike could be the last, more policy easing in China, & positive US retail sales.• EUR & GBP softer. The shift in relative yield spreads has weighed on EUR & GBP. AUD has held its ground, with AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP rising.• Data pulse. Also helping the AUD was a positive local employment report. Today, the market focus will be on the August China activity data. It has been a busy 24hrs with several data releases and policy decisions coming through. On net, the events have supported risk sentiment...

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12 Sep 2023

US inflation cross-currents

• Mixed signals. US equities a bit lower, bond yields mixed, while oil rose. EUR rebounded following a ‘hawkish’ news article. AUD consolidates.• US inflation. The latest US CPI report is released tonight. Headline inflation is set to jump because of oil, but core inflation is predicted to slow.• Diverging trends. Australian consumer sentiment remains low, but business conditions improved. The local jobs data is released tomorrow. Markets were generally well contained overnight as participants await tonight’s US CPI report (10:30pm AEST). In bonds, the US 2yr yield drifted a bit higher (+3bps to 5.02%), while long end yields moved...

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