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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

Diverging economic fortunes

• US yields. Softer US producer prices supported views inflation pressures are receding. Expectations of multiple Fed cuts in 2024 remain. US 2yr yields fell.• Stable FX. Despite the drop in US yields the USD consolidated. AUD is hovering just under ~$0.67. The RBA outlook continues to diverge from its peers.• Event radar. Offshore the China data batch, US retail sales & comments by Fed/ECB officials will be in focus. Locally, the December jobs report is due. A quiet end to last week across FX markets with the major currencies range bound on Friday. The USD Index held its ground...

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US CPI surprise

• US CPI. Data slightly higher than forecast. This triggered a bout of market volatility. After an initial jump in yields & the USD, & drop in equities, markets reversed.• Glass half full. US yields fell as some underlying inflation trends still support the outlook for eventual Fed policy easing, though a move in March looks too soon.• AUD vol. Further bouts of AUD volatility likely given where we are in the cycle. Since the float the AUD has, on average, traded in a ~13cent range each year. Markets endured a burst of volatility overnight in the wake of the...

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Waiting on the US CPI

• Mixed markets. US equities rebounded & bond yields ticked up. Oil prices dipped. In FX, there were generally limited net moves. AUD near $0.67.• AU inflation. Headline inflation decelerated more than expected. But things are still a long way from target. RBA to lag its peers when rate cuts come through.• US CPI. December inflation data released tonight. Headline inflation forecast to nudge up, but core CPI predicted to slow. The data can generate USD volatility. Ahead of the US CPI release markets put in a mixed performance overnight. On the one side, equities bounced back with a tech...

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Risk sentiment turns

• Market jitters. European/US equities gave back some ground, as did industrial metals. Global growth concerns also gave the USD a bit of a boost.• AUD underperforms. The global backdrop more than counteracted the positive Australia economic data. Black Friday helped retail sales exceed expectations.• AU inflation. The monthly CPI indicator is released today. Headline CPI is forecast to slow, but the RBA is more focused on core & services inflation. Risk sentiment soured a bit overnight. European and US equities gave back some of the gains from a day earlier (EuroStoxx50 -0.4% and US S&P500 -0.2%), US bond yields...

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Hold the line

• FX consolidation. Quiet start to the week across FX. USD consolidated with AUD treading water. US CPI the major focal point this week (released Fri AEDT).• Mixed markets. A tech sector rally boosted US equities. Oil prices fell on softer demand signals, & bond yields lost some ground.• AU data. November retail sales due today. Black Friday sales expected to have boosted spending. Tomorrow the monthly CPI indicator is released. It has been a quiet start to the week for FX markets with the major currencies range bound over the past 24hrs. The USD index has held onto its...

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