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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

08 May 2024

European central banks leading the way?

• Quiet markets. US equities consolidated, while 10yr yields ticked up. USD a touch firmer. AUD’s post RBA pull-back extended a bit further.• European divergence. Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates. This follows the Swiss National Bank. Will the ECB be next? BoE tonight. It may be more ‘dovish’.• Global activity. China trade data due today. Various leading indicators for global industrial activity, like the copper price, have been improving. Fairly narrow ranges in global markets overnight with limited new information coming through to shake things up. US equities consolidated with the S&P500 ending the day unchanged after moving higher over the...

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06 May 2024

A ‘hawkish’ turn from the RBA?

• Holding on. Quiet start to the week. US equities & base metals firmer. Long-end yields a bit lower, while the USD & AUD consolidated.• Fed survey. The Fed’s latest lending survey shows credit conditions are still ‘tight’. This can crimp lending & US growth over time, bringing on rate cuts.• RBA meeting. RBA in focus today. Rates pricing has adjusted higher. Will the RBA match the markets thinking? If not, the AUD could fall back. It has been a quiet start to the week across markets. This is unsurprising given the light event calendar. Last week’s moves stemming from...

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05 May 2024

Softer US data pressures the USD

• Positive vibes. A weaker US jobs report & ISM services data exerted more pressure on US yields & the USD. The AUD’s revival continued.• RBA meeting. Australian interest rate pricing has adjusted higher. But has it gone too far? The RBA may not match ‘hawkish’ market expectations.• Event radar. Locally the RBA (Tues) is the main event. Offshore, the Bank of England meets. In the US several Fed members are due to speak. The positive market mood stemming from the less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting continued on Friday. Softer US jobs and services ISM data supported the...

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02 May 2024

Will the US labour market crack?

• Post Fed. US yields & the USD have remained on the backfoot after the Fed wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. JPY rebound also weighed on the USD.• US jobs. AUD revival continued. US jobs in focus tonight. Reaction likely to be binary. Weaker (stronger) result set to be AUD positive (negative).• RBA looming. RBA next Tuesday. We think the Board could discuss the merits of another hike. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. The washout across markets from yesterday’s less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting has continued. Bond yields in Europe and the US have fallen further with...

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01 May 2024

Higher for longer Fed already priced in

• Expectations matter. US Fed failed to live up to the markets “hawkish” thinking. Rates set to stay higher for longer, but this was already priced.• Yields adjust. Fed Chair Powell doesn’t see more hikes. US yields slipped back & the USD softened. AUD recovered ~1/2 of yesterday’s fall.• JPY swings. Another sharp jump in the JPY caught the markets eye after the Fed. US jobs report (Friday night) the next major market event. The US Fed meeting was in focus this morning. As per our thoughts outlined over the past week the Fed failed to live up to very...

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