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10 Apr 2024

10 Apr 2024

Another US CPI market jolt

• US inflation. A higher than expected US CPI generated a sharp repricing in US rate expectations. This supported the USD & dampened sentiment.• AUD tumble. The shift in market pricing & stronger USD has push the AUD lower with the AUD’s April revival unwinding overnight.• AUD crosses. The AUD also underperformed on the crosses. We think this looks a bit overdone. ECB meeting, US PPI, & Fed speakers in focus tonight. Another hotter than projected US CPI reading jolted markets overnight as it further challenged the US Fed’s view that inflation pressures are on a glidepath back down to...

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10 Apr 2024

Bank of Canada Stays Cautious, Disappointing Doves

As had been widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, and language in the accompanying statement, Monetary Policy Report, and prepared comments remained steadfastly neutral, leaving market expectations for a rate cut at the June meeting largely unchanged. It the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged weakness in the economy at the end of last year, and noted that labour market conditions continue to ease. “Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1 percent in March”. But updated...

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10 Apr 2024

US Inflation Comes In Hot, Lowering Odds on June Rate Cut

Consumer price growth remained stubbornly elevated in the United States last month, suggesting that hotter-than-expected prints in January and February were not simply driven by seasonal aberrations, and raising doubts around the Federal Reserve’s plan to deliver three rate cuts over the remainder of the year. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.8 percent in March from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This exceeded consensus estimates among economists polled by the major...

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10 Apr 2024

Trading Ranges Shrink Ahead of US Inflation Data

Price action is slowing and the dollar is holding steady against its counterparts in the foreign exchange markets as investors brace for the biggest US consumer price index print since… well, since the last one. Economists surveyed by the major data providers expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a 0.3-percent rise in both headline and core price measures for the month of March – a result which would indicate that January and February’s hotter-than-expected prints were temporary aberrations in a longer-term cooling process. Some risk has likely been taken off the table: Equity indices and risk-sensitive currencies swooned...

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