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20 Nov 2023

USD on the ropes

• Positive tone. Equities generally added to recent gains, bond yields consolidated, oil & copper rose, & the AUD has edged up to a ~3-month high.• Weaker USD. The USD has remained on the backfoot. The US leading economic index fell again, pointing to a sharp growth slowdown over the period ahead.• RBA rhetoric. Today, RBA Gov Bullock appears on a panel & the minutes of the November meeting are released. Gov Bullock delivers a speech tomorrow night. It has been a relatively quiet start to week across markets. Equities have generally added to recent gains with the US outperforming....

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Volatility falls into holiday-shortened week

Goldilocks is eating everybody’s porridge this morning, ignoring her mama’s warnings about ruining her appetite for Thanksgiving. With markets increasingly convinced the US economy is headed into a period of not-too-warm, not-too-cold growth, the dollar is trading at its lowest levels in more than two months, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the open. Implied volatility measures continue to trend lower across asset classes. Currency markets are exhibiting typical “dollar smile” dynamics as a narrowing in expected growth rates and a drop in US rate projections helps spark a recovery in outbound capital...

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