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17 Aug 2023

Bond yields & China in focus

• Bond moves. Yields have continued to rise. The US 10-yr is at its highest since late-2007. This has exerted more pressure on equities. USD remains firm.• CNY focus. Trends in China & CNY remain in focus. Policymakers in China appear to be becoming uncomfortable with the CNY weakness.• AU jobs. Labour market data undershot expectations. Unemployment rose in July, extending the AUD weakness. But is the AUD starting to find a base? Developments in bond markets and China remain front of mind. Against a backdrop of light news and economic dataflow bond yields have risen further. Concerns that rates...

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Dollar slips as global yields inch higher

The dollar is retreating from yesterday’s extreme levels as currency markets stage a modest and hesitant recovery against a materially-tighter financial backdrop. Benchmark Treasury yields holding near a 15-year peak on fears that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, and rates in most major advanced economies are pushing upward in sympathy. North America A record of the Fed’s July policy meeting showed officials remaining relatively hawkish. Some policymakers turned more cautious, pointing out that risks had become “more two-sided,” making it “important that the committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent over-tightening of policy against the cost...

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Australian labour market turning point?

After a few surprisingly solid months the latest Australian labour force lottery came in weaker than expected and this has added to the downward pressure on the AUD (now ~$0.6390). In terms of the numbers employment fell by 14,600 in July, with full-time jobs declining (-24,200) after a couple of robust results. This is only the 3rd fall in employment in the past 21-months and on net the Australian economy has still added ~387,000 jobs over the past year, but nevertheless when it comes to the AUD as is often the case “when it rains it pours”. With the participation...

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