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11 Jul 2023

US CPI in focus

• Softer USD. Strong UK wages has bolstered BoE rate hike expectations, supporting GBP. The JPY has also continued to recover lost ground.• US inflation. Large base-effects & some other drivers point to a sizeable step down in US CPI. If realised, this could exert more pressure on the USD.• AUD events. Ahead of the US CPI, RBA Governor Lowe speaks & the RBNZ policy decision is announced. No change by the RBNZ is expected. Mixed fortunes across markets, with focus still very much on tonight’s US CPI report (10:30pm AEST). Offshore equity indices edged higher (US S&P500 and EuroStoxx50...

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It’s quiet. Too quiet.

Currency markets are broadly lacking in conviction this morning, with the British pound the only significant mover among the majors, and the dollar inching lower against its rivals in generally-directionless trading.  Equity markets and commodity prices are unimpressed after the People’s Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration told lenders to roll over outstanding loans to property developers – a step that might prevent a string of defaults, but which won’t do much to improve household confidence. After what might have been the biggest property bubble in history, many cities are overbuilt, local governments and millions of households are carrying...

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