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06 Jul 2023

How high can bond yields go?

• Rates reprice. Stronger than expected US & European data jolted bond yields higher. US 2yr yield spiked to a cyclical high before settling near ~5%.• AUD struggles. AUD remains on the backfoot. Higher rates for longer is a negative for global growth. Policy expectations are also against the AUD.• US payrolls. US non-farm payrolls data released tonight. Another solid report could reinforce the upswing in global interest rate pricing. A case of good economic news is bad news for markets overnight. Robust data jolted markets into re-evaluating how high interest rates may need to go to take the heat...

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Unsurprising Fed minutes push yields higher

Odds on another rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July meeting were left slightly higher yesterday after a record of June’s discussion showed officials were modestly more hawkish than expected. Staff forecasts pointed to a deceleration in growth and price pressures through the latter half of the year, and there was considerable uncertainty about where the cumulative effects of previous tightening efforts would appear, but “almost all” agreed that rates would need to climb further this year – and some favoured moving more quickly because “momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated and there were few clear signs that...

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