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04 Apr 2023

04 Apr 2023

Rate expectations JOLTED

• Shaky sentiment. US equities and industrial metals eased back. The USD weakened, tracking the fall in US yields. EUR higher, USD/JPY lower.• US labour market turning. US JOLTS report weaker than expected. Tighter conditions are starting to work. But there is still a long way to go.• AUD underperformer. RBA pauses and waters down its guidance. RBNZ expected to hike by 25bps today, but could it also tweak its language? A more cautious tone across markets with US equities giving back some ground (S&P500 -0.6%), industrial metals easing (copper dipped ~0.9%), and US bond yields falling. US 2yr yields...

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04 Apr 2023

RBA: over and out

In what we think was a somewhat finely balanced decision the RBA finally ‘paused’ its rate hiking cycle at the April meeting. After raising rates aggressively since kicking things off in May 2022 (the RBA delivered a cumulative 350bps worth of hikes over the previous 10 meetings, the fastest and most abrupt tightening cycle since at least the 1980s), the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 3.6% for the second straight month. While the RBA held firm in April it has kept the door open to doing more down the track. However, further moves have become far more contingent...

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