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USD

US events in focus

• Shaky sentiment. US equities, yields & the USD a bit lower as Q1 US GDP was revised down. AUD rebounds up towards ~$0.6630 (its 1-month average)• US politics. Former President Trump found guilty. Market impact has (so far) been limited. More twists & turns in US politics look likely.• Data flow. China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, & US PCE deflator due today. Moderating US inflation & positive data elsewhere could weigh on the USD. There was a ‘risk off’ tone across most markets overnight, although in FX the moves didn’t follow the usual script. US equities slipped back (S&P500 -0.6%)...

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Market Retreat Continues as Yields Climb

Worries about a higher-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve are intersecting with extraordinarily-elevated levels of government bond issuance to drive yields higher, bolstering the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. With ten-year yields climbing across the developed economies, but moving even faster in the United States, the greenback is trading near a two-week peak, and investors are rebalancing away from equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies. After a series of stronger-than-expected data releases and hawkish comments from Fed officials, markets are struggling to choke down heavy volumes of bond supply. In comments yesterday, the Atlanta Fed’s relatively-centrist President Raphael Bostic said “My outlook is...

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Hawkish Kashkari Comments Pour Cold Water on Markets

The dollar is advancing, yields are higher, and equity futures are in retreat as more overt hawkishness from a Fed official weighs on global risk sentiment. Markets tumbled yesterday morning when Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari – doing his best to become the new Jim Bullard – suggested that further rate hikes remained a possibility. Speaking at a monetary policy forum in London, Kashkari said “the odds of us raising rates are quite low,” but “we could stay on hold for an indefinite period of time, and “I don’t think anyone has totally taken rate increases off the table”. Kashkari’s...

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Market Momentum Fades After US Long Weekend

The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are essentially unchanged, and equity futures are edging higher as US market participants return from the Memorial Day long weekend. Both the pound and euro are trading near the tops of their respective trading ranges as economic growth prospects brighten and expected yield trajectories edge higher. A series of data releases over the last month have provided evidence of a bottoming in both economies, with last week’s purchasing manager indices delivering the clearest view yet into the improvement in sentiment that could underpin growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. The European Central...

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No news is good news

• Quiet start. UK & US on holidays. European equities rise & bond yields slip back. Upbeat risk tone weighed on the USD & supported the AUD.• ECB speakers. Several ECB members spoke with a rate cut next week strongly hinted at. What happens after that will depend on the data.• AU data. Retail sales due today. Monthly CPI indicator released tomorrow. Weaker data could exert some near-term downward pressure on the AUD. It has been a quiet start to the week across markets, unsurprising given the UK and US were off enjoying a long weekend and the limited news...

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