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USD

28 Oct 2024

AUD pressure cooker

• Push/Pull. Oil prices tumbled, while US equities, bond yields & USD ticked higher. AUD on the backfoot & is at levels last traded in mid-August.• USD upswing. Higher US yields as well as the weaker EUR & JPY pullback are underpinning the USD. US data could generate more strength.• US politics. US election next week. Odds of Trump winning have risen. Volatility likely with his policy platform also viewed as being USD supportive. There has been a bit more volatility in markets at the start of the week. Oil prices have tumbled with brent crude shedding ~5% (now ~$72/brl)....

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28 Oct 2024

Markets Hunker Down As Event Risk Minefield Looms

De-risking activities are dominating trading activity in financial markets this morning as participants brace for what could be the most momentous fortnight of the year. Treasury yields are climbing once again, with the ten-year now yielding 4.25 percent, the dollar is advancing against its major peers, and trade-sensitive currencies – like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso – are flirting with year-to-date lows. Crude prices are down sharply after Israeli aircraft struck military targets in Iran over the weekend, avoiding any obvious harm to the country’s energy infrastructure and giving Tehran room to avoid another round of escalation. Implied volatility...

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27 Oct 2024

US election: FX inflection point

The US Presidential Election is almost upon us with the vote held next week (5 November US time). While it has been tracked closely in the media for some time the same can’t be said for markets. Other macro and geopolitical developments such as the US/global interest rate cutting cycle, the situation in the Middle East, and macro goings on in China were front-of-mind for most of the past few months. But with the finish line nearing participants have finally been more seriously casting their eye over how the election could pan out and what it may mean for the...

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27 Oct 2024

US data & election in focus

• Mixed moves. US equities consolidated while bond yields nudged up. USD firmer driven by USD/JPY. AUD & NZD lost some ground on Friday.• US elections. US heads to the polls in just over a week. Trump is ahead in the battleground states. Volatility likely over the period ahead.• Event radar. Locally, Q3 CPI is due (Weds). Offshore, US GDP & non-farm payrolls are released, as is EZ GDP/CPI & China PMIs. BoJ also meets. Markets were rather subdued on Friday with US equities consolidating (S&P500 flat, NASDAQ +0.6%) and bond yields unwinding the previous day’s dip (US 10yr +3bps...

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25 Oct 2024

Mean Reversion Kicks In, Forcing Dollar Retreat

Treasury yields are slipping for a second day as an early-week barfing episode gets washed out of markets, the dollar is retreating, and rival currencies are edging higher ahead of the North American equity open. Orders for durable goods fell by more than expected last month, but changes in aircraft orders obscured a relatively-positive read on underlying fundamentals. On a headline basis, new orders for goods meant to last more than three years fell -0.8 percent in the United States in September, but core capital goods – which exclude aircraft and defence products – climbed 0.5 percent, building on August’s...

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