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USD

17 Nov 2024

Signs of exhaustion?

• Choppy times. US equities weaker at the end of last week. Paring back of rate cut expectations a factor. USD consolidates with USD/JPY declining.• AUD trends. AUD hovering just above recent lows. Stronger for longer USD a medium-term AUD headwind. But AUD can edge up on the crosses.• Event radar. Global PMIs & CPI data from the UK, Japan, & Canada is due. ECB, US Fed, & RBA members are also due to speak this week. It was a choppy end to the week in markets on Friday with the US election outcome continuing to wash through and with...

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15 Nov 2024

Easing Expectations Fall, Markets Retreat

The dollar is still making the weather in global financial markets this morning, heading for a circa 1.5-percent weekly gain, even as it weakens slightly on a modest softening in overall risk sentiment. Treasury yields are holding at elevated levels as investors ratchet rate cutting expectations lower, and equity futures are pointing toward another weak session as uncertainty grows around the economy’s potential performance under a second Trump administration. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory are pulling back after two influential officials said the central bank could take its time in cutting rates. In a speech given to business...

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14 Nov 2024

USD powering ahead

• Policy trends. The pricing in of the Trump agenda & comments by Fed Chair Powell have seen US rate cut expectations pared back.• USD upswing. The adjustment in yield spreads in the US’ favour is supporting the USD. We think this trend may have further to go.• Data pulse. The monthly China activity data is due today. Tonight, focus will be on US retail sales given consumption is the economic engine room. The post US-election market gyrations were on show again overnight as participants continue to contemplate what a Trump policy mix of trade-tariffs, greater fiscal spending, and steps...

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14 Nov 2024

Dollar Stages Comeback On Political Risks and Inflation Jitters

And it’s back. The dollar is extending its post-election rally this morning, gaining against all of its major counterparts – excepting the safe-haven Swiss franc – as markets continue to adjust to a future in which US policymakers maintain expansionary fiscal policies, raise barriers to trade, and fold the security umbrella that has underpinned global growth since the Second World War. A series of nomination announcements in the last two days – including former Fox News personality Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, NATO-sceptic Tulsi Gabbard as director of National Intelligence, and firebrand congressman Matt Gaetz as Attorney General – have...

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13 Nov 2024

US Inflation Stabilises, Markets Express Relief

Consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, avoiding a widely-feared surge, and giving the Federal Reserve room to ease policy settings in December. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.3 percent in October from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, while matching September’s pace. This was in line with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, suggesting that hurricanes Helene and Milton...

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