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USD

12 Aug 2024

Data flow set to heat up

• Quiet start. Subdued start to the new week. US equities consolidated, bond yields slipped back. Commodities firmer. This helped the AUD drift higher.• Data flow. UK jobs & US PPI due today. US inflation, RBNZ meeting, & UK CPI out tomorrow. Will the US PPI/CPI show moderating inflation pressures?• AU data. Q2 wages & business conditions in focus today. Wages drive services inflation. The monthly Australian jobs report out on Thursday. In contrast to the panic sell-off across markets last Monday it was a typical quiet start to the week yesterday. US equities consolidated (NASDAQ +0.2%, S&P500 flat), bond...

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12 Aug 2024

Fragile Calm Returns

Fear levels are subsiding across financial markets after a week that shattered the typical August calm. The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc are tumbling against a recovering dollar, Treasury yields are edging upward, equity futures are pushing higher ahead of the North American open, and measures of financial stress are reverting toward levels that prevailed ahead of the July non-farm payrolls report. Last week’s moves are now seen as an overreaction. After the Institute for Supply Management’s services index rebounded and weather-related distortions were removed in last week’s initial claims data, the consensus has shifted toward expecting a continued deceleration...

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11 Aug 2024

Busy week ahead

• Consolidation. Quiet end to a volatile week. Equities continue to recover. Bond yields slip back. USD treading water. AUD below 200-day moving average.• Divergence. RBA pricing still stands out. First RBA cut factored in by Feb. By this point the US Fed & RBNZ are assumed to have cut by ~120-140bps.• Event radar. Several important releases this week including US CPI/retail sales, China data batch, UK jobs/inflation, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. It was a rather quiet and uneventful end to a volatile week on Friday. The recovery in equities continued with the US S&P500 and Japanese Nikkei edging...

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08 Aug 2024

What recession?

• Fading concerns. Lower US jobless claims eased US recession fears. US equities surged. Cyclical currencies like the AUD outperformed.• RBA hawks. ‘Hawkish’ rhetoric from RBA Gov. Bullock also supported the AUD. The RBA is diverging from the pack. We think this is AUD positive.• Event radar. Limited data today. Several releases next week including US CPI/retail sales, China data, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. Market fears have continued to fade with cyclical assets enjoying a positive 24hrs. Concerns a US recession is around the corner eased further after the latest read on initial jobless claims fell to a multi-week...

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07 Aug 2024

Fear subsides. But will it last?

• JPY trends. The weaker JPY boosted sentiment yesterday. Asian/European equities rose, as did long-end bond yields. AUD hovering near ~$0.6520.• NZD bounce. Better than feared NZ jobs report supported the NZD. But ‘slack’ is still increasing. A matter of time before the RBNZ starts to cut rates. The market nervousness from earlier this week has continued to subside. Asian and European equities rose 1-2%, with Japan’s Nikkei effectively back to where it was ahead of Monday’s dramatic sell-off. That said, it hasn’t been all one-way with US stock markets fading as the overnight session rolled on (S&P500 -0.8%). Bond...

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