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USD

27 Nov 2024

Markets Consolidate Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors consider the implications of Donald Trump’s latest cabinet picks and position ahead of this morning’s inflation update. The dollar is inching lower amid month-end flows, Treasury yields are down, equity futures are slipping, and oil prices are weakening after Israel and Hezbollah reached a cease-fire agreement late yesterday, reducing the likelihood of a widening conflict that could pull in other regional powers. Unease over the extent to which protectionist policies might be deployed by the US remains elevated after the president-elect tapped Robert Lighthizer’s former chief of staff to lead trade...

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26 Nov 2024

AUD/NZD: RBNZ stuck in reverse

In its final meeting of 2024 the RBNZ delivered another outsized rate cut with today’s 50bp reduction lowering the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Interest rates had peaked at 5.50% in NZ, but since turning course in August the RBNZ has delivered 125bps worth of easing in quick time as it looks to move settings out of the very ‘restrictive’ territory they were in. As a result, the RBNZ’s OCR is now below the RBA’s cash rate (now 4.35%) for the first time since mid-2013. And the gap should continue to widen, in our view, with the RBNZ set to...

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26 Nov 2024

The ‘tariff man’ is back

• US tariffs. Markets rattled by President-elect Trump’s announcement tariffs would be imposed on Mexico, Canada & China on his first day.• USD firmer. The move supported the USD & weighed on cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD. Negative risk sentiment saw the JPY outperform.• Data flow. Today, the monthly AU CPI is due. RBNZ also expected to cut rates again with a 50bp reduction predicted by analysts. Markets were rattled yesterday after President-elect Trump fired a few shots in his post-election trade war. Via social media Trump stated that to curb the inflow of drugs and migrants he would...

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26 Nov 2024

‘Tariff Man’s’ Return Rocks Currency Markets

Donald Trump’s threat to raise consumption taxes on a range of goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China is still sending shockwaves across currency markets. The dollar is up roughly a percentage point against its North American and European counterparts after the president last night said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10 percent on Chinese goods, accusing the countries of allowing illegal migrants and drug traffickers into the US. In a break with long-standing Republican orthodoxy – most clearly under Ronald Reagan – this would raise trade...

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25 Nov 2024

US politics still in the driver’s seat

• US politics. Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick supported sentiment. US equities rose while bond yields fell. USD lost a little ground.• AUD dip. AUD bucked the trend to be back near ~$0.65. Underperformance on the crosses was a factor. We don’t think this should last.• Data flow. Limited releases today. RBNZ expected to cut rates tomorrow. Australian monthly CPI also due Wednesday. Will it re-accelerate? The market tone has been a bit more upbeat at the start of the new week. News President-elect Trump has nominated experienced hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, a more orthodox choice than...

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