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USD

22 Oct 2024

Bond Turbulence Roils Currency Markets

Bond markets continue to puke like the cast of Family Guy after drinking Ipecac*. The ten-year US Treasury yield is holding above the 4.2-percent threshold this morning – up from 3.6 percent in mid-September – after a violent bond selloff during yesterday’s session, and a widely-watched measure of Treasury yield volatility – the MOVE index – is pushing higher as traders brace for more turbulence. Currency markets are reacting accordingly. The dollar is outperforming most of its major rivals, keeping the euro and pound stuck near recent lows as rate differentials tilt in America’s favour. The yield-sensitive yen is coming...

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21 Oct 2024

Dollar Grinds Higher as Data Cadence Slows

The US dollar is trading with a consolidative bias this morning, advancing steadily against its major rivals ahead of this week’s thinly-populated data calendar. Treasury yields are up, North American equity futures are positioned for a healthy open, and oil prices are inching higher on a ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Markets are becoming more focused on the risks associated with the upcoming US presidential election. Option prices are beginning to ratchet up around the polling date, trade-sensitive currencies are softening, and ten-year Treasury yields are moving higher at a steady pace, with many market participants...

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20 Oct 2024

US election is just around the corner

• Consolidation. Quiet end to last week. US stocks hit another record. USD drifted back a little. AUD hovering above its ~6-month average.• US election. A relative quiet calendar means more focus could be on the US election. Former Pres. Trump ahead in the polls in several ‘swing states’.• Event radar. Global PMIs due this week. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates again. Several key central bankers scheduled to speak. A relatively quiet end to last week across markets. Equities remain firm with the US stockmarket extending its record run. The S&P500 (+0.4%), which hit yet another record high,...

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17 Oct 2024

Macro divergence

• Divergence. European equities rose, while the S&P500 consolidated. US yields increased. EUR softer. Despite a firmer USD the AUD edged up.• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More easing expected. US retail sales stronger than anticipated. This & US election risks supported the USD.• AU jobs. AUD outperformed after the AU employment report was stronger than projected. RBA on a different path to its peers. China data due today. Economic divergence between the Eurozone and US was on show once again overnight. As anticipated the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25bps, the third move this easing cycle....

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17 Oct 2024

US Consumer Strength Drives Dollar Higher

The dollar and Treasury yields are surging, and equity markets are setting up for a strong open after new data showed the US consumer remaining alive and well in September, further reducing the need for an emergency-style response from the Federal Reserve. The Canadian dollar is taking it on the chin as expected rate differentials widen in the greenback’s favour, with a jumbo-sized rate cut at next week’s Bank of Canada now overwhelmingly favoured by economists and markets. Retail sales beat forecasts in September by a wide margin, with the headline print climbing 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, powered...

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