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USD

09 Sep 2024

Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slower-than-anticipated pace of job creation through July and August, but soon reversed on evidence of underlying stability in labour markets – the unemployment rate edged lower, the prime age employment rate remained historically high, and growth in average hourly earnings showed signs of accelerating. A widely-anticipated speech from Governor Waller didn’t clarify things much either. Odds on a half-percentage-point move shot up as...

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06 Sep 2024

Dollar Tumbles as US Labour Market Slows

US labour markets softened more than expected for a second month in August, bolstering odds on a more decisive easing response from central bankers this autumn. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 142,000 jobs were added in the month, missing the 165,000 consensus forecast, and revisions to prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 86,000 positions.  Wage gains accelerated, pointing to a stabilisation in worker bargaining power. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, doubling from 0.2 percent in the prior month, and were up 3.8 percent year-over-year.  The unemployment rate fell to 4.2...

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06 Sep 2024

Dollar Edges Lower Into Payrolls

The dollar is trading near a one-week low as the minutes count down to what could easily become the year’s most pivotal data release: the August non-farm payrolls report. With investors broadly convinced that the data will improve, but nonetheless set the stage for at least one jumbo-sized rate cut from the Federal Reserve this autumn, the greenback is slipping against its major rivals, especially the yen, while Treasury yields are edging lower, and stock futures are coming under pressure. Consensus estimates suggest that the US added 165,000 new jobs in August, up from the 114,000 reported in July, but...

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05 Sep 2024

US payrolls in focus

• Hold the line. US S&P500 dipped, as did US yields & the USD. US ADP employment underwhelmed. But this hasn’t been a great guide for payrolls.• US employment. Non-farm payrolls tonight. USD (& AUD) reaction likely to be binary. Stronger (weaker) data could be USD positive (negative).• RBA rhetoric. Gov. Bullock held firm. Level of demand & inflation still high. Rate cuts look some time away. Policy divergence AUD supportive. Recent market trends generally extended overnight, although the size of the moves has been more limited. The US S&P500 (-0.3%) slipped back for the third straight day, something which...

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05 Sep 2024

Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears

The dollar is back on the defensive after new data showed the US labour market cooling rapidly, increasing odds on a dramatic opening salvo in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle later this month. Treasury yields are stabilising after yesterday’s tumble and equity futures are advancing ahead of this morning’s weekly jobless claims number, but directional position-taking remains restrained, with tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report poised to play a pivotal role in determining market outcomes across virtually every major asset class. The number of job openings fell in July to the lowest level since the start of 2021, according to yesterday’s Job...

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