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01 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Make Valiant Attempt at Rallying Into Fed Decision

Global equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies are rallying this morning as rumours of an easing in China’s “covid-zero” policy spread across social media – but gains look vulnerable as official sources strenuously deny any changes are afoot. The DXY dollar index is down almost 0.6 percent and the yen – strongly correlated with the S&P 500 – is up sharply as North American traders hit their desks, suggesting that markets are setting up for a Santa Claus rally even as the outcome of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision remains uncertain. The 10-year Treasury yield has slipped well below the 4 percent...

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31 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Traders Turn Cautious Ahead of Action-Packed Week

The greenback is climbing and the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar is slipping ahead of a week that could prove pivotal in currency markets. Central banks in Australia, the US and the UK will deliver rate decisions and a slew of data releases including non-farm payrolls will be published in the coming days, helping to set market positioning into year end. Traders are buying the Brazilian real after former president Lula da Silva triumphed over Jair Bolsonaro in a closely-fought election. The currency had traded with a persistent risk discount in recent months as Mr. Bolsonaro cast aspersions on the electoral process,...

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28 Oct 2022

Market Wire: Inflation and Growth Prints Keep North American Central Banks On Course

American households kept spending last month and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure maintained its momentum, keeping the central bank on track toward a 75 basis point hike at next week’s meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed inflation-adjusted household outlays climbing 0.3 percent in September, with services spending decelerating relative to August, while vehicle and drug purchases lifted the tangible goods sector. Personal income rose 0.4 percent month-over-month, led by a 0.6 percent increase in private sector wages and salaries. The core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Federal Reserve – rose...

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28 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Depressed Earnings Weigh on Global Market Sentiment, Boosting Dollar

US equity futures are falling and the dollar is climbing after weak earnings releases from the likes of Amazon and Apple provided more evidence of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy. The ten-year Treasury yield is flirting with the 4-percent threshold once again, commodities are weaker, and oil price gains are stalling out. Canada’s dollar is struggling to push through the 1.35 mark. The euro is trading back below parity against the dollar after the European Central Bank delivered a widely-expected 75 basis point hike but removed statement language that had previously suggested rates would ratchet higher at the...

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27 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Fed Deceleration Hopes Lift Currency Markets

The dollar is trading near a one-month low as the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle inflicts damage on the real economy, bolstering the case for a slower pace of rate hikes in the months ahead. The US 10-year yield fell below 4 percent and markets jumped yesterday after the Bank of Canada decided to raise rates by less than expected. The Canadian dollar tumbled in the seconds after the surprise decision, but immediately rebounded as the greenback slumped. But Canada is great at exporting comedians – people like John Candy, Jim Carrey, Seth Rogen, Elon Musk – not its monetary policy...

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