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USD

10 Aug 2022

Market Wire: US Inflation Decelerates More Than Expected

Headline US consumer prices rose by less than anticipated in July, putting downward pressure on short-term yields as market participants brace for a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the consumer price index climbed 8.5 percent in July from the same period last year, essentially flat on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by major data providers expected a 9.1 percent annual gain and 0.2 percent relative to June. A 4.6 percent month-over-month drop in energy prices — helped by an 7.7 percent tumble in the gasoline sub-index....

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10 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: A Calm Before the Storm Before the Calm Settles Over Markets

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Investors cut exposures ahead of this morning’s critically-important inflation print, leaving most major currency pairs unchanged in overnight trading. The dollar is modestly weaker, and the Treasury curve remains deeply inverted, with two-year yields exceeding their ten-year equivalents by almost 50 basis points – the most since 2000, and a sign that investors expect the economy to fall into a recession. Markets expect inflation pressures to subside somewhat, with the headline measure rising 8.7 percent year-over-year in July, down from 9.1 percent in June. The core measure is seen rising to 6.1 percent from 5.9 percent...

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09 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Directionless Markets Await Inflation Data

Equity futures are set for a weaker open, yields are higher, and exchange rates are milling about in a confused manner as liquidity ebbs ahead of tomorrow’s consumer price data. The dollar continues to unwind Friday’s gains. Oil prices are ratcheting higher after a report said Ukraine’s Ukrtransnafta last week halted flows across the Druzhba 1 pipeline that delivers Russian crude to Europe. A Bloomberg article quoted a Transneft spokesperson who said sanctions were preventing the payment of a transit fee to the pipeline’s operator. The West Texas Intermediate and Brent benchmarks are up roughly 1 percent each, but the...

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08 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Markets Turn Wary

Markets seem to have remembered the most fundamental rule in finance this morning: If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. The dollar is falling and yields are coming under pressure as traders turn slightly more sceptical on the underlying details and near-term sustainability associated with Friday’s astonishingly-strong jobs numbers, with growth seen decelerating and employment rates expected to soften in coming months. Policy expectations are falling. Implied odds on a 75 basis point move at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are holding near 68 percent, up from 40 percent prior to the release, but down relative to...

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05 Aug 2022

Market Wire: US Job Growth Smashes Expectations, Dollar Rises

528,000 jobs were created in the United States last month – far above expectations, and sufficient to compel a larger rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in July, and the participation rate moved down to 62.1 percent. Overall payroll employment has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels – hardly indicative of an economy toppling into recession. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent month-over-month, accelerating from 0.3 percent in June. Ahead of the release, investors were positioned for a 250,000-job gain, with...

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