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08 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Rally Pauses as Global Policy Landscape Shifts

The dollar is pausing for breath after stampeding through global financial markets for more than a week. The euro, pound, and yen are exhibiting signs of stability ahead of a central bank decision in Europe, fiscal intervention in the UK, and a senior-level policy meeting in Japan. The European Central Bank is expected to raise all three of its benchmark rates by 75 basis points, tightening policy aggressively as it moves to keep inflation expectations under control. The euro could remain weak as investors focus on painful price pressures and looming recessionary threats, with the central bank’s updated projections for...

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07 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Winning Reverse Beauty Contest

The dollar is continuing its untrammelled rise this morning, crushing its developed- and emerging-market peers alike as the US reprises its role as a rock in a sea of economic troubles. As Europe faces an energy shock, China slows, and falling commodity prices weigh on emerging market growth prospects, the American economy – with its voracious consumers, incredibly profitable corporate sector, and aggressively hawkish central bank – is drawing financial flows from the rest of the world, further widening performance gaps. The yen is trading near new post-1998 lows, ignoring fresh intervention warnings from the government. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu...

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06 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Market Mood Brightens

With a refreshing long weekend behind them and back-to-school lunchboxes (lovingly packed by their moms) sitting on their desks, traders are tiptoeing into markets in a cautiously-optimistic manner this morning. Yields are falling, futures on most major equity indices are in the green, and the dollar is weakening as risk appetite improves. The Australian dollar remains on the defensive after the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate target by half a percentage point for the fourth consecutive time, continuing the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades as it struggles to bring inflation under control. Central bankers hinted...

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02 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Stabilize as Payrolls Report Looms

Yields are flat and the dollar is holding steady after hitting multi-decade highs during yesterday’s trading session. This morning‘s non-farm payrolls report is expected to clear the way for a three-quarter-point hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Economists think the US economy generated 290,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at around 3.5 percent in August, with the labour market proving robust amid a central bank-engineered tightening in financial conditions. Data released yesterday showed initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, falling to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 last week from 237,000 the previous week. Financial markets might welcome signs...

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02 Sep 2022

Market Wire: Rate Expectations Fall After Payrolls Report Lands in Fed’s Sweet Spot

315,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, and the unemployment rate climbed as participation levels rose – indicating that the labour market remains strong enough to withstand a three-quarter-point rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting, but also suggesting rates won’t have to climb quite as high in the longer term. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.7 percent in August, and the participation rate moved down to 62.4 percent from 62.1 in the prior month, indicating that workers are coming off the sidelines, attracted...

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