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19 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Retreats After Messi Weekend

With traders returning to their terminals after an exceptionally unpredictable and entertaining World Cup, a final round of year-end rebalancing is driving most major currencies up against the dollar. Treasury yields are flat, commodity prices are firmer, and equity futures are pointing to incremental gains at the open. Japan’s yen is stabilizing after an unusually-volatile weekend trading session. On Saturday, the Kyodo news agency, citing government sources, said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was planning to work with the next Bank of Japan Governor on adding “flexibility” to the country’s inflation target – a step that could pave the way for...

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16 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Festive Cheer Drains Out of Markets As Central Banks Remain Hawkish Into Year End

After a bruising session yesterday, risk-sensitive currencies are setting up for another day of losses. The greenback is firmer, yields are higher, and commodity prices are weaker after the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish-than-expected stance on Wednesday’s meeting, Europe’s central banks followed suit with their own 50-basis point hikes, and data pointed to a slowdown in American consumer spending. November retail sales tumbled 0.6 percent from the prior month, falling more than expected as price growth slowed and spending patterns shifted. So-called “control group” sales, which exclude building materials, vehicle parts and gas station sales, dropped 0.2 percent, while...

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15 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Risk Appetite Stabilizes After Fed Decision, Dollar Remains Weak

All is not calm and all is not bright in financial markets this morning, but price action remains surprisingly restrained after yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision. Equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, yet interest rates are stable, the dollar is soft, and most major currencies are trading within ranges established earlier in the week. The Fed tried to deliver an overtly-hawkish message: An updated dot plot showed the median member of the Federal Open Market Committee thinks interest rates will climb above 5.1 percent next year – well above market levels – and seven of nineteen said they...

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14 Dec 2022

Market Wire: Federal Reserve Hikes 50 Basis Points, Remains Steadfastly Hawkish

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee raised benchmark rates by 50 basis points and lifted rate forecasts by more than expected – suggesting that officials are waiting for sustained and conclusive evidence of a downturn in inflation before executing the policy “pivot” markets have been hoping for. At the conclusion of its last two-day meeting in 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25-to-4.50 percent, with no dissents in favour of a smaller or larger move. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers avoided telegraphing a slower...

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14 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Optimistic markets prepare for Fed decision

Tis’ the season to be jolly. Traders are in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s data showed consumer prices rising in November at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021. Although equity markets have largely retraced their steps, ten-year Treasury yields are holding below the 3.5-percent threshold, the dollar is weaker, and risk appetite looks robust across the currency markets. It might seem like investors are decking the halls with boughs of folly, but there are good reasons to think inflation is stabilizing at lower levels. Cheaper energy prices are gradually reducing upward pressure on headline indices, and seem unlikely to...

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