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Market Briefing: China unrest rocks global markets

Markets are in risk-off mode this morning as protests against China’s “zero-covid” policies boil over and raise uncertainty in the world’s second-largest economy. Treasury yields are slumping as investors seek safety and speculators unwind leveraged positions, and the dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing. The bravery of people confronting a regime with unsurpassed control over its citizens has been inspiring and astonishing, but Beijing’s long history of stamping out dissent would suggest that the current bout of unrest will be short-lived, with limited implications for the broader global economy. Xi Jinping is unlikely to hand protestors a symbolic...

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Market Wire: Fed minutes tilt dovish, lifting majors against the dollar

Policymakers on the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee are convinced rates will need to rise more than had been expected in September, but are preparing to moderate the pace of increases in coming months as they seek to assess the impact on the economy. According to a record of the group’s early November meeting published this afternoon, many participants felt there was considerable uncertainty around how high the federal funds rate would need to climb, but “various participants” warned that with inflation remaining high against a backdrop of continued supply and demand imbalances, the ultimate level was “somewhat higher than they...

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Market Briefing: Markets go quiet as Fed minutes and turkey loom ahead

Most major currency pairs are caught in tight trading ranges as traders brace for minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and liquidity ebbs ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The dollar is modestly weaker, and Treasury yields are holding steady. The euro is trading on a slightly stronger footing after sentiment data turned higher, mitigating fears of an even sharper downturn. S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 47.8 from 47.3 in October – still below the 50 threshold separating contraction from expansion, but indicative of an improvement in confidence as the bloc grapples with a historic energy...

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Market Briefing: Greenback fades against thinning liquidity backdrop

The dollar is trading on a softer footing against most of its major counterparts after several Federal Reserve officials helped solidify market expectations for a smaller, half-percentage point hike at the December meeting. In separate comments yesterday, San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly said “I think we can slow down from the 75 at the next meeting” and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester stressed the need to be “mindful” of the risks involved in tightening too much. Oil prices are holding steady after yesterday’s whiplash-inducing session. Front-month West Texas Intermediate plunged by more than $5 a barrel when the Wall Street Journal claimed...

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Market Briefing: Risk appetite worsens as holiday-thinned trading week begins

A sense of caution has settled over currency markets this morning as hopes for a recovery in the Chinese economy fade – and as participants brace for a liquidity-thinned week in which accidents can have bigger-than-normal consequences. The dollar is up against most of its risk-sensitive rivals after the number of coronavirus cases in China continued to climb, forcing several cities back into lockdown, and demolishing the idea that consumer demand would suddenly spring back to life. This comes even as markets have become increasingly convinced that US inflation is rolling over against a still-robust economic backdrop – bringing the...

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