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USD

22 Feb 2023

Fire. Aim. Ready.

Investors are in a “sell first, ask questions later” kind of mood. Bond and equity markets suffered their worst day of the year yesterday amid speculation we have arrived at a “good as it gets” moment for the US economy, and risk aversion remains well entrenched – the dollar and yen are outperforming their rivals on safe-haven demand, commodity prices are down, and yields are up sharply. Consumer bellwethers Home Depot and Walmart issued disappointing outlooks, suggesting that prices could continue to increase even as sales volumes fall through the remainder of the year. Home Depot projected flat revenues for...

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21 Feb 2023

Rates rethink

• Higher bond yields. Stronger services PMI data in Europe and the US has seen interest rate markets adjust further. This has weighed on risk sentiment.• USD firm. The lift in US yields is supporting the USD. AUD has drifted back. Locally, wages data is released today.• AUD/NZD in focus. RBNZ announcement today. Will the RBNZ stay the course and hike by 50bps, or will it hold back given the cyclone impacts? A negative night for markets with investor sentiment shaken by another jump in bond yields as positive economic data fueled expectations central banks, particularly the US Fed, have...

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21 Feb 2023

Markets Retreat as Fed Minutes and Spending Data Loom

The dollar steamroller ground to a halt over the long weekend, but appears to be getting a small push from worsening risk sentiment as markets reopen this morning. Treasury yields are pushing higher, equity futures are down, oil prices are slumping, and risk-sensitive currencies are back on the defensive in foreign exchange markets. A surge in optimism among British businesses is lifting the pound. An update published this morning showed the S&P’s composite purchasing manager index climbing to 53 in early February from 48.3 in the prior month, firmly above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, and sufficient...

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21 Feb 2023

Silent night

Unsurprisingly, with the US President’s Day holiday and no major news across the other regions, it has been a quiet start to the week. European equities eased back slightly, tracking the modest falls in US S&P500 futures (now -0.3%) with the US Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate outlook continuing to sink in. European bond yields ticked up 2-5bps across their respective curves, with some ‘hawkish’ comments from the ECB’s Rehn playing a role. According to Rehn inflation is “excessively high”, further rate hikes by the ECB beyond March seem “logical”, and the bank shouldn’t rush to start discussing rate cuts. The...

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17 Feb 2023

Almighty Dollar Reigns Supreme

The greenback is reading its own obituary once again, defying early January’s almost-universally bearish sentiment to surge toward a six-week trade-weighted high. Data released yesterday showed initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 194,000 last week, pushing the four-week average to 189,500. Despite widespread fears of a slowdown, employers continue to add jobs at a pace consistent with strong economic growth, and laid-off workers are finding new roles quickly. This comes on top of a slew of data releases that point to robust growth and strong underlying inflation pressures in the US economy. Employers added more than half...

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