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15 Mar 2023

Currency Volatility Snaps Higher on Suisse Miss

World markets are coming under renewed selling pressure this morningas signs of a banking contagion spread to Europe. Equity futures are setting up for drastic losses at the open, Treasury yields are down across the curve, and the dollar is pushing higher against its G10 rivals. Oil prices are tumbling, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark slipping below $70 for the first time since September 2021.  A fragile sense of calm was broken when shares in Credit Suisse Group AG plunged and credit default swap prices shot up after it said “material weaknesses” had been found in its reporting. Selling worsened when the head...

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14 Mar 2023

Past the worst?

• Risk sentiment improves. Equites and bond yields bounced back overnight, but the moves in FX have been more contained.• US inflation. Core inflation remains stubbornly high. Services prices remain the key driver. This points to further Fed rate hikes and a USD rebound.• AUD data flow. China data is released today. Tomorrow, the Australian labour force report is due. Positive data may give the AUD a short-term boost. After a few turbulent days the tone across markets was more positive overnight, though reports late in the session that a Russian fighter jet collided with a US drone did see...

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14 Mar 2023

Still-Elevated Core Inflation Lifts Odds on Fed Hike Next Week

US consumer inflation slowed as expected last month, but underlying prices rose by slightly more than forecast, helping support odds on a quarter-point hike at next week’s Federal Reserve. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 6.0 percent in February from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This aligned tightly with estimates from economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs slipped -0.7 percent month-over-month as a -7.9-percent drop in fuel oil offset a 1-percent rise in gasoline prices....

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14 Mar 2023

Hope Springs

Markets are staging a cautious recovery after a three-day bout of selling drove equity indices into the red and triggered some of the biggest daily interest rate declines on record. US regional bank stocks appear destined for a more constructive open, with yesterday’s indiscriminate selling giving way to a more nuanced pickup in well-capitalized names. Treasury yields are climbing off the floor, and the dollar is rising against most its major counterparts. But damage has been done. Rate expectations have been reset lower across the global economy, financial conditions have tightened sharply, and the episode has likely inflicted a psychological...

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