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USD

19 Sep 2023

US Fed in focus

• Some jitters. Rising oil prices & higher Canadian inflation boosted bond yields. Equities were flat. The USD consolidated & AUD ticked up.• US Fed. No policy change is anticipated tomorrow. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance & forecasts. Markets are already pricing a ‘higher for longer’ view.• Event radar. In addition to the US Fed over the next few days UK CPI (today) is released & the BoE meets (tomorrow). The BoJ meeting is on Friday. A few jitters across markets overnight ahead of tomorrows US Fed decision and press conference (4am and 4:30am AEST). Equities were flat...

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19 Sep 2023

Volatility crumples into central bank deluge

Measures of market turbulence are falling ahead of a slew of central bank decisions, suggesting that investors feel confident in rates nearing a peak for the current cycle. Over the coming days, the Federal Reserve is expected to stay on hold and adjust its “dot plot” projections to show rates remaining high for longer. Another hike from the Bank of England is narrowly favoured in fixed-income markets, but growing signs of economic weakness could push the vote and accompanying statement in a more dovish direction. The Bank of Japan is considered unlikely to change its policy settings, with traders instead...

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18 Sep 2023

Waiting game

• Quiet markets. US equities flat, bond yields mixed. AUD consolidates. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of this weeks offshore central bank meetings.• ECB signals. EUR a bit firmer following reports the ECB is looking at ways to mop up the QE driven excess liquidity in the banking system.• Local trends. RBA minutes today. Population growth is booming. GDP is a volume measure. This can partially offset the drag from higher rates. It has been a quiet start to what could be a busy week given the upcoming central bank meetings. European equities played a bit of catch up...

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18 Sep 2023

In debt we trust

In dollar terms, the United States is the world’s most indebted country, with a net international investment position – the difference between US residents’ foreign financial assets and liabilities – increasing to –$16.75 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. If the US were subject to the same constraints as a household or business, this would be terribly alarming – and indeed, charts are frequently shared on Twitter and other social media sites purporting to show the imminent collapse of the economy as debt levels reach a tipping point (another, particularly confused one,...

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