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13 Jun 2023

On-consensus inflation print puts Fed on course toward rate “skip”

US consumer inflation slowed as expected last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to skip a rate hike at tomorrow’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 4 percent in May from the same period last year, up 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the 4.1 percent and 0.1 percent consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. With gasoline prices tumbling, energy costs slid 3.6 percent month-over-month, while the food index inched 0.2 percent higher. New vehicle prices fell -0.2...

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12 Jun 2023

An action packed week ahead

• Positive vibes. Equities higher. The risk backdrop & repricing in RBA expectations has pushed the AUD towards the top of its multi-month range.• Inflation focus. US CPI due tonight. Base-effects should drag down annual headline inflation. But will core inflation hold up and rattle market nerves?• Event risk. There are several events on Thursday with the US FOMC decision, AU jobs report, China data batch, ECB meeting, and US retail sales on the schedule. A mixed performance across markets overnight, though the underlying tone was generally positive at the start of an action-packed week. US and European equities rose,...

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12 Jun 2023

Weekly Update June 12

Demand expectations are falling as evidence of a slowdown in the global industrial cycle accumulates – with China leading the way. Oil prices are dropping. Crude oil benchmarks, USD per barrel New York Federal Reserve Consumer Expectations Survey: “Inflation expectations declined to 4.1 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, its lowest reading since May 2021, but increased slightly to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons”. Consumer inflation expectations are coming down. Google search volume for “inflation” and median one-year ahead expected inflation rate, % Inflation breakevens – which measure the difference between Treasury yields and Treasury...

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12 Jun 2023

Trading Ranges Compress Ahead of Decisive Week

Currency traders are battening the hatches ahead of a week in which the world’s three most powerful central banks will deliver rate decisions and a series of critical data updates will be published, potentially shaping the monetary policy outlook.  Economists think tomorrow’s data will show US headline inflation slowing to 4.1 percent year-over-year in May, down from 4.9 percent in the prior month as gas prices continue their decline.Underlying consumer prices should also cool, with ebbing goods demand and an easing in rental costs driving the month-over-month change in the core measure down to 0.3 percent from April’s 0.4 percent. After a...

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09 Jun 2023

Canadian Dollar Drops as Traders Question Rate Hike Sustainability

The Canadian dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing after Statistics Canada reported the first loss of jobs in nine months, suggesting that the economy was beginning to struggle with higher borrowing costs ahead of this week’s rate hike. The country lost 17,300 jobs in May and the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2 percent from 5.0 percent as the part-time, self-employed, and services sector categories moved into contraction. The number of hours worked (sometimes a better read of underlying conditions) fell 0.4 percent month-over-month, and wages grew 5.1 percent year-over-year, down from 5.2 percent in the prior month. We think the...

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