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USD

05 Jun 2023

A matter of when, not if the RBA moves again

• US labour market. Another punchy US payrolls report. US yields rose, as did the USD. Broader risk sentiment remains positive.• Limited offshore data. Global event calendar is limited this week. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia announced a cut to its oil production.• RBA in focus. Will the RBA deliver another hike this week? Markets factoring in a ~40% chance. Given pricing, there could be an asymmetric AUD reaction. Risk sentiment remained positive at the end of last week. Equities added to recent gains with the US S&P500 rising by another ~1.5%. The S&P500 is now at its highest level...

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02 Jun 2023

Falling Rate Expectations Snap Dollar’s Momentum

Equity futures and risk-sensitive currencies rose slightly last night after the US Senate passed compromise legislation designed to raise the debt ceiling. The ironically-named Fiscal Responsibility Act, which moved through the voting process with extraordinary speed, will suspend the statutory limit on federal borrowing until January 2024, averting a possible default without imposing major constraints on government spending. The measure is now headed to the president for signature. But the real action came earlier in the day, when a series of data releases combined with increasingly-dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric to put Treasury yields and the dollar under pressure.Following Wednesday’s comments from...

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01 Jun 2023

False dawn?

• Optimistic markets. Sentiment improves, as a ‘skip’ by the Fed at the June meeting is factored in. Equities higher, bond yields & USD a bit lower.• US labour data. AUD has been boosted by the improved risk appetite. US labour market report released tonight. This could see the USD bounce back.• Wage decision. Ahead of the US data, the minimum/award wage decision is handed down this morning. This could influence RBA expectations & the AUD. The new month has started on positive footing with risk sentiment improving. But, from our perspective, the underlying data pulse and rationale given for...

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01 Jun 2023

Currency Markets Consolidate Ahead of Critical Non-Farm Payrolls Report

An easing in tail risks is helping lift global markets this morning after the US House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling. The measure passed by a 314-117 margin late last night, with Democrats joining with centrist Republicans to push the bill forward for approval in the Senate. Although disappointing earnings estimates are weighing on several of the biggest tech names, equity futures are broadly higher, Treasuries are reversing yesterday’s rally, and the dollar is edging upward against most of its major counterparts. The number of US employment vacancies jumped unexpectedly last month, further firming odds...

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31 May 2023

Global growth concerns

• Growth worries. Weaker than expected China PMIs added to global growth concerns. This has dampened risk sentiment. AUD touched a new ~6-month low.• AU CPI. Inflation indicator re-accelerated more than expected. Data bolsters the case for another RBA hike. Tomorrow’s minimum/award wage decision is important.• USD firm. The USD remains near its recent highs. US ISM manufacturing survey released tonight, with non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Another negative night for risk sentiment with more signs the world economic downturn is gathering pace coming through. Across equities, the EuroStoxx50 fell 1.7% and the US S&P500 was down 0.6%. This followed...

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