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25 Sep 2023

Weapons of mass disruption

In 1939, after the Soviets invaded Poland, Winston Churchill told radio audiences, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”  We find ourselves in a similar position. We cannot predict what Russia will do in the coming days, let alone the coming months. We’re not even sure the key is Russian national interest: Vladimir Putin’s actions in recent years would suggest he is driven by other motives.  We worry, however, that the world looks increasingly vulnerable...

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25 Sep 2023

Markets turn negative as threat environment worsens

Markets are back on the warpath this morning, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar toward cyclical peaks. The US ten-year is holding near 16-year highs, the trade-weighted greenback is at its strongest levels in six months, risk-sensitive currencies are retreating, and global oil benchmarks keep pushing toward the $100 per barrel mark. Two major factors are bolstering the US exceptionalism trade: strong domestic demand numbers are forcing investors to capitulate in the face of the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and risk-reward ratios in other currencies are worsening as soaring oil prices threaten to raise costs in the major energy importing regions. And...

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24 Sep 2023

Another US government shutdown looming?

• Negative vibes. Bond yields eased back & US equities continued to lose steam. The global PMIs illustrated ongoing sluggish growth momentum.• USD mixed. GBP remains on the backfoot as markets price in ‘peak’ rates. USD/JPY rose after the BoJ held steady. AUD ticked a bit higher.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI & retail sales due this week. Offshore, EZ CPI & US PCE data released. Risk of another US government shutdown also rising. The upswing in bond yields paused for breath on Friday and equity markets continued to lose steam. US and UK 10yr yields ended Friday ~6bps lower...

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22 Sep 2023

Into thin air

The speed at which memes spread across the financial media can be astonishing. Since the Bank of England’s Huw Pill recently described the likely monetary policy trajectory as resembling Cape Town’s “Table Mountain” – steep on the sides, with a long plateau on top – in an August speech, sell-side analysts and commentators from major news publications have rushed to point out that the majority of mountain climbing deaths occur during the descent phase. This is true. A 2008 study showed that 73 percent of the deaths occurring between 1921 and 2006 on Mount Everest happened when climbers were descending...

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22 Sep 2023

US exceptionalism trade regains momentum

A bruising week for global Wall Street continues this morning, with the dollar holding steady and major indices paring gains into the North American open. Ten-year Treasury yields are inching slightly lower after climbing to a 16-year high in yesterday’s session, paying more than 4.5 percent at one point. The moves came after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday issued forecasts showing rate cuts happening at a slower and more incremental pace than markets had previously anticipated, and after another weekly claims report beat expectations, suggesting that labour markets remain far from cooling. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell...

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