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USD

04 Jul 2023

RBA holds fire

• US holiday. Quiet night across markets. Oil prices rose, EUR weakened, & the AUD bounced back following yesterday’s post-RBA meeting dip.• RBA holds firm. Cash rate held steady at 4.1%. We expect a 25bp hike in August when new inflation & labour market forecasts are produced.• US data flow. US FOMC minutes, JOLTs job openings, ISM services measure, & US labour market report due over coming days. With the US enjoying its 4 July holiday it was another quiet night across markets. The EuroStoxx50 eased (-0.2%), with cyclical sectors like industrials, materials, and financials underperforming. European bond yields were...

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04 Jul 2023

RBA: Skips a beat

In what we believe was yet another finely balanced call the RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.1% at today’s meeting. This maintains the cumulative tightening delivered so far this cycle at 400bps. This is the sharpest RBA tightening cycle since at least the early 1980s, and we don’t think the RBA is done. The RBA once again noted that while inflation has passed its peak it “is still too high” and “will remain so for some time yet”. However, considering the sharp increase in rates that has already been put through and uncertainty around the outlook, a decision...

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03 Jul 2023

Will the RBA hike or hold?

• Quiet trade. Minimal moves ahead of today’s US holiday. Yields tick up, with markets shrugging off the deterioration in the US manufacturing ISM.• RBA today. Will they hike or hold? Expectations are split. Markets have a ~32% chance of a hike, while 13 of 27 analysts surveyed have the RBA moving.• AUD reaction. Based on market pricing short-term AUD reaction could be uneven. But as seen in June a RBA rate rise isn’t the be-all & end-all for the AUD. Markets were quiet overnight with US trading sessions shortened due to today’s 4 July holiday. US equities inched higher...

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02 Jul 2023

Another line-ball RBA meeting

• Risk on. Softer US spending & PCE inflation data supported risk sentiment on Friday. Equities higher. US bond yields consolidated. USD lost some ground.• RBA in focus. Will they hike or pause on Tuesday? Markets & the analyst community are evenly split. This points to a binary short-term AUD reaction.• AUD forces. As shown last month, RBA actions aren’t the only thing that matter for the AUD. A solid US labour market report on Friday could boost the USD. A positive end to last week for risk markets with equities rising on Friday, while bond yields consolidated, and the...

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30 Jun 2023

Slowing consumer demand weighs on US yields, forces dollar into incremental retreat

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure slowed and consumer spending flatlined in May, suggesting that the central bank’s monetary tightening efforts are beginning to take a toll on the economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rising 0.3 percent in May from the prior month, up 4.6 percent year-over-year – coming in slightly below consensus estimates for a 4.7-percent print. The so-called “supercore” measure – services inflation excluding housing and energy services – favoured by Jerome Powell rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, rising at the...

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