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USD

Currencies flatline into jobs reports

The dollar and Treasury yields are under pressure ahead of a non-farm payrolls report that could shed more light on how the economy is holding up amid the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades. The trade-weighted greenback is almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s levels, with week-to-date gains at just 0.2 percent, while ten-year Treasury yields are holding at 4.73 percent, well off Tuesday’s 4.87 percent high. The pound is struggling to gain momentum after the Bank of England’s Ben Broadbent yesterday articulated a change in the central bank’s reaction function, appearing to suggest that growth risks were beginning to...

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US payrolls in focus

• Relief continues. Bond yields, oil prices & the USD lost a bit more ground overnight. BoE & US Fed comments raise doubts about the extent of further hikes.• AUD recovery. The AUD has edged up a little against the USD & on most crosses. In addition to tonight’s US labour report, US CPI is released next week.• US payrolls. Based on where things are tracking we think a larger (more negative) USD reaction could occur if the US data underwhelms. Yesterday’s moves extended a bit further overnight with markets marking time ahead of tonight’s US jobs report (11:30pm AEDT)....

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Markets reverse yesterday’s reversal

A global relief rally is unwinding as markets take a more skeptical view on the likelihood of a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Early in yesterday’s session, a series of data releases helped diminish expectations ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report and push odds on a final 2023 rate hike back below coin-toss levels: Payroll processing firm ADP said the private sector created just 89,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 160,000 or more. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index weakened more than projected. And West Texas Intermediate prices suffered the biggest reversal this year, falling by...

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Short-term relief or trend change?

• Market relief. Softer US ADP employment data & a lower oil price weighed on bond yields. US equities rose & the USD drifted back slightly.• AUD consolidates. The AUD has clawed back a little ground. But it remains at low levels. Since 2015 the AUD has only traded sub ~$0.63 ~1% of the time.• US data. US payrolls is the next major event (Friday AEDT). Given where things are tracking a larger (more negative) USD reaction could occur if the data disappoints. A break from the recent trend overnight with bond yields lower, equities higher, and the USD a...

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Markets JOLTED again

• US yields higher. Positive US job openings pushed US yields higher. This helped the USD & weighed on risk sentiment. AUD slipped below ~$0.63.• USD/JPY volatility. After moving above ~150 USD/JPY tumbled. FX intervention wasn’t confirmed. The moves helped the USD stabilise.• RBA & RBNZ. No change from the RBA yesterday. RBNZ meets today with rates expected to be held steady. AUD/NZD is near levels last traded in late-May. Familiar themes and trends were on show again overnight. A stronger US JOLTS (i.e. job openings) report generated another jump up in bond yields and some further USD strength which...

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