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USD

10 Oct 2023

A shift in the Fed’s tone?

• Positive tone. Cautious rhetoric from Fed officials is weighing on bond yields & the USD, & boosting risk sentiment despite the Middle East conflict.• AUD ticking up. The downshift in the USD & reports China is considering a new round of stimulus is helping the AUD. The RBA’s Kent speaks today.• US data. US PPI inflation released tonight, as are the minutes of the last Fed policy meeting. The important US CPI report is due tomorrow night. Risk sentiment has remained positive with markets taking a somewhat sanguine view about the implications of the Middle East events. Oil prices...

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10 Oct 2023

Markets rebound on dovish Fedspeak

Risk appetite is improving after a flock of Federal Reserve officials executed what looked a lot like a communications pivot yesterday, shifting away from the higher-for-longer message that dominated rhetoric for months. Speaking at an economics conference, the Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan suggested that a rise in the bond term premium – the yield difference demanded by investors for taking long-term risk – “could do some of the work of cooling the economy for us, leaving less need for additional monetary tightening”, and her colleague Vice Chair Jefferson said “We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we...

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09 Oct 2023

AUD turnaround

• Risk-off/risk-on. Oil rose ~4%, but the firmer USD & dip in equities unwound overnight. Developments & Fed comments weighed on US rates.• AUD rebound. A weaker USD & improved risk sentiment boosted the AUD. Australia’s position as a net energy exporter is also AUD supportive.• AU data. Cons. confidence & bus. conditions due today. Population growth is somewhat offsetting the impact on the economy from higher rates. Events in the Middle East continue to dominate the headlines with the conflict still raging and the implications of the increased geopolitical risks across the region still being worked out. However, in...

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08 Oct 2023

Geopolitical tensions

• Middle East. Developments look set to hang over markets at the start of the new week. The USD, JPY & oil are typically supported by this type of unrest.• US jobs. Payrolls exceeded forecasts, but the underlying detail wasn’t as rosy. Markets were volatile around the data. US CPI released on Thursday.• AUD cross-currents. More negative risk sentiment can exert a bit of pressure on the AUD. But softer US inflation can offset this later in the week. The tragic weekend developments in the Middle East look set to hang over markets at the start of the new week....

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06 Oct 2023

Job creation accelerates, exacerbating market stress

The US labour market smashed forecasts in September – with job growth almost doubling market estimates – suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening efforts have farther to go in slowing the economy. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 336,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent, remaining near historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 4.2 percent year-over-year, broadly in line with expectations. Ahead of the release, economists had forecast a 160,000-job gain (although markets likely expected more) and the unemployment rate was seen holding at 3.8 percent. The dollar...

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