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USD

30 Oct 2023

Traders exit safe havens ahead of busy week

Markets are unwinding risk haven trades this morning, following a pattern established over the last several weekends, with Gaza-related geopolitical exposures forcing traders to square positions before each Friday close, only to reopen them each Monday. With Israeli forces advancing more cautiously than had been feared, oil prices are down, gold is coming under selling pressure, and equity futures are edging higher. The dollar is broadly softening against its major counterparts – including the Canadian dollar – but ten-year Treasury yields are again pushing past the 4.85-percent mark as investors brace for a tumultuous week in fixed income markets. The...

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27 Oct 2023

US consumer spending stays strong while income growth slows, weakening rate outlook

US consumer spending grew and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated as expected in September, but income growth slowed – helping ratify the case for a plateau in benchmark interest rates near prevailing levels. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by central bankers – rising 0.3 percent in September from the prior month, up 3.7 percent year-over-year – aligning perfectly with consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 3.4 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, decelerating slightly from...

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27 Oct 2023

Growing conviction in US “soft landing” supports risk appetite

Markets are trading with a mildly supportive tone this morning after yesterday’s third-quarter growth data showed US inflation pressures continuing to fade even as consumer spending remained robust – conditions closely resembling those the Federal Reserve has been working to engineer. After dropping almost ten basis points, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.86 percent, and most major currencies are strengthening against an incrementally weaker dollar. Equity futures are gaining ahead of the North American open on solid earnings guidance from Amazon and Intel, and oil prices are higher after the US launched “precision self-defense” strikes against two Iran-linked facilities...

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26 Oct 2023

Push & pull forces

• Market vol. Equities lower as earnings disappoint. US yields reverse despite robust US GDP as inflation pressures ease. Oil lower in spite of Middle East tensions.• USD trends. Lower yields took some of the heat out of the USD. US economic strength boosted the USD recently. But was Q3 as good as it gets?• AUD pulse. AUD traded in a ~2% range this week. Q3 CPI supports the case for another RBA hike. Yield spreads shifting in favour of a higher AUD. Financial market gyrations are continuing, though overnight not all asset classes reacted uniformly. The slide in equities...

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26 Oct 2023

Wrong in all the right ways

“An economist,” said Laurence J. Peter*, “is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today”. Currency strategists are similar, but it usually takes only a few minutes to see our predictions go completely wrong. We’re not aware of anyone (economist or otherwise) who accurately forecast this morning’s 4.9-percent surge in third quarter gross domestic product back in July, yet we feel relatively confident in thinking that this outperformance won’t be repeated – and may even reverse – over the final three months of the year. Consumer spending growth through the summer months appears...

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