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USD

03 Nov 2023

North American job creation engines slow, weighing on yields

The US labour market slowed sharply in October, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold through the early part of next year. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, just 150,000 jobs were added, down from a revised 297,000 in September, and the unemployment rate crept higher to 3.9 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, modestly below expectations. Ahead of the release, “whisper number” estimates had forecast a 200,000-job gain and the unemployment rate was seen holding at 3.8 percent. The dollar is weakening, equity futures are pushing higher,...

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03 Nov 2023

Directional momentum slows into US payrolls report

Happy non-farm payrolls day, to all who celebrate. Ahead of the most important release on the monthly economic calendar, markets are working to demolish the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” narrative. Investors, apparently comforted by Jerome Powell’s words during Wednesday’s post-meeting press conference, have dramatically lowered odds on another interest rate hike in the coming months, and have moved to add two rate cuts to 2024 – in addition to the two already priced in. After breaking above 5 percent for the first time since 2007 last week, ten-year Treasury yields have lost almost 35 basis points, marking one of...

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02 Nov 2023

Jobs, jobs, jobs

• Yields fall. Long end yields continued to decline. This has boosted equities. The AUD has edged up to the top of its recent range.• Central banks. The BoE held rates steady. Outside of the RBA, expectations tightening cycles are nearing their end continue to build.• US jobs in focus. Soft data would reinforce the slide in yields & the USD. But this isn’t guaranteed. A positive surprise could see recent moves reverse. The pull-back in long-end bond yields continued overnight as expectations central bank tightening cycles (outside of the RBA) are nearing their end continue to build. The US...

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02 Nov 2023

Fed pivot hopes boost markets

Yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision was seen as tilting dovish, with a newfound emphasis on “tighter financial conditions” taken to mean that higher bond yields are negating the need for further rate hikes. Ten-year government bond yields fell below 4.75 percent for the first time since mid-October, extending a move that began earlier in the session when the Treasury Department said it would ramp up issuance more slowly, and accelerated after the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index tumbled more than expected. Equities gained, and the dollar fell against all of its major counterparts. This was to be expected: several officials,...

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01 Nov 2023

US bond yields tumble

• US yields fall. No change from the US Fed, but the tone was ‘cautious’. This, softer US data, & lower debt issuance projections weighed on US yields.• Positive sentiment. The moves in US rates helped support equity markets & cyclical currencies like the AUD. The AUD outperformed over the past 24hrs.• Yield spreads. The RBA is expected to hike rates next week & further steps are possible. This shift has seen yield spreads move in favour of a higher AUD. A sizeable drop in US bond yields was the dominating market development overnight. US yields fell by 14-19bps across...

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