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USD

09 Oct 2023

AUD turnaround

• Risk-off/risk-on. Oil rose ~4%, but the firmer USD & dip in equities unwound overnight. Developments & Fed comments weighed on US rates.• AUD rebound. A weaker USD & improved risk sentiment boosted the AUD. Australia’s position as a net energy exporter is also AUD supportive.• AU data. Cons. confidence & bus. conditions due today. Population growth is somewhat offsetting the impact on the economy from higher rates. Events in the Middle East continue to dominate the headlines with the conflict still raging and the implications of the increased geopolitical risks across the region still being worked out. However, in...

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08 Oct 2023

Geopolitical tensions

• Middle East. Developments look set to hang over markets at the start of the new week. The USD, JPY & oil are typically supported by this type of unrest.• US jobs. Payrolls exceeded forecasts, but the underlying detail wasn’t as rosy. Markets were volatile around the data. US CPI released on Thursday.• AUD cross-currents. More negative risk sentiment can exert a bit of pressure on the AUD. But softer US inflation can offset this later in the week. The tragic weekend developments in the Middle East look set to hang over markets at the start of the new week....

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06 Oct 2023

Job creation accelerates, exacerbating market stress

The US labour market smashed forecasts in September – with job growth almost doubling market estimates – suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening efforts have farther to go in slowing the economy. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 336,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent, remaining near historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 4.2 percent year-over-year, broadly in line with expectations. Ahead of the release, economists had forecast a 160,000-job gain (although markets likely expected more) and the unemployment rate was seen holding at 3.8 percent. The dollar...

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06 Oct 2023

Currencies flatline into jobs reports

The dollar and Treasury yields are under pressure ahead of a non-farm payrolls report that could shed more light on how the economy is holding up amid the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades. The trade-weighted greenback is almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s levels, with week-to-date gains at just 0.2 percent, while ten-year Treasury yields are holding at 4.73 percent, well off Tuesday’s 4.87 percent high. The pound is struggling to gain momentum after the Bank of England’s Ben Broadbent yesterday articulated a change in the central bank’s reaction function, appearing to suggest that growth risks were beginning to...

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05 Oct 2023

US payrolls in focus

• Relief continues. Bond yields, oil prices & the USD lost a bit more ground overnight. BoE & US Fed comments raise doubts about the extent of further hikes.• AUD recovery. The AUD has edged up a little against the USD & on most crosses. In addition to tonight’s US labour report, US CPI is released next week.• US payrolls. Based on where things are tracking we think a larger (more negative) USD reaction could occur if the US data underwhelms. Yesterday’s moves extended a bit further overnight with markets marking time ahead of tonight’s US jobs report (11:30pm AEDT)....

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