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USD

09 Feb 2024

US Inflation Revisions Are Damp Squib, Canadian Jobs Beat

Revisions to seasonal adjustments used in the US consumer price index helped push bond yields lower and boost equity prices this morning. The annualized change in headline inflation over the last six months of 2024 was reduced by 0.2 percent, while core price growth remained unchanged. This combination should leave monetary policymakers unmoved, but will also alleviate hedging requirements among market participants who had feared a repeat of early-2023’s revisions.  All-items consumer price index, monthly % change The Canadian economy generated more jobs than anticipated in January, but wage growth slowed sharply, helping firm market expectations for an imminent pivot...

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09 Feb 2024

Markets Tread Water Into Inflation Revisions 

Currency market participants are keeping their powder dry ahead of today’s US consumer price index revisions. The dollar is steady, Treasury yields are slightly higher, and equity futures are setting up for an incrementally-stronger open after the S&P 500 index hit a record high in yesterday’s session, briefly broaching the 5,000 mark. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual seasonal revisions are seen nudging measured consumer price index inflation rates up slightly in the latter half of 2023, but markets are wary of the potential for a bigger move. Many investors are still suffering post-traumatic stress disorder after last February’s procedure...

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08 Feb 2024

Central bankers continue to push back

• Mixed markets. Bond yields a bit higher as ECB & Fed officials continue to push back on near-term rate cut bets. USD firmer against JPY & AUD.• RBA speak. Governor Bullock testifies to parliament today. A repeat of this week’s rhetoric expected. This may give the AUD some intra-day support.• US CPI revisions. Revisions to seasonal factors for the US inflation data released tonight. This caused a stir across markets last year. Will it happen again? A mixed performance across asset classes in what was generally another quiet night when it comes to market news flow. Central bankers hit...

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07 Feb 2024

Steady as she goes

• Consolidation. US equities edged higher, bond yields ticked up slightly, but the USD and other major currencies remained range bound.• Fed speak. More Fed members spoke overnight. But reaction was limited. Market interest rates have adjusted with odds of a March cut whittled down.• AUD turn? AUD tracking below our fair-value estimate. A lot of bad news looks factored in. US inflation, US retail sales, & AU jobs due next week. Fairly subdued trade in most markets overnight. Given the lack of top tier data releases this is not a surprise. In contrast to European stocks which eased slightly...

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07 Feb 2024

Sleepy Markets Prepare for Uneventful Session 

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Markets aren’t providing us with much to write about this morning: equity futures are setting up for a tame open, yields are basically flat, and most major currencies are less than 0.10 percent off yesterday’s levels. Yesterday’s round of Fedspeak was relatively hawkish. Outgoing Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester – a voter until June – said policymakers might feel confident enough to begin easing policy “later this year,” but “It would be a mistake to move rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence that inflation is on a sustainable and...

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