Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

USD

Core US inflation slows, reinforcing “peak rates” view

Underlying US consumer inflation softened more than expected last month, essentially eliminating market-implied odds on one more move in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, and sending global yields lower. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 4.0 percent in October from the same period last year, up 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was weaker than consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release – which were set at 4.1 and 0.3 percent,...

Read More Read More

Markets flatline ahead of inflation print

Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of this morning’s US consumer price index report, which is expected to show underlying inflation pressures remaining relatively stubborn, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish footing. Equity futures, Treasury yields, and the dollar are moving sideways. The Canadian dollar remains weak amid an absence of domestic catalysts – and against a more cautious risk backdrop. The British pound is almost unchanged against the dollar and euro after data showed wage growth slowing slightly in the third quarter, but remaining well above the Bank of England’s comfort zone. Earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7...

Read More Read More

All eyes on US CPI

• Quiet trade. US equities & the USD consolidated, while yields slipped back a little. The AUD ticked up, although this follows last week’s negative run.• US inflation. US CPI released tonight. There are a few push-pull factors are play this month. Reaction in US yields & the USD is likely to be binary.• Event risks. The calendar is packed with other releases the next few days. China data batch & AU wages due tomorrow, & US retail sales is tomorrow night. It has been a subdued start to the week across markets with investors marking time ahead of the...

Read More Read More

Weekly Chartbook

Sovereign risk isn’t likely to impact US rates. Oil markets are trading defensively. Inflation drivers have shifted. Retail sales remain far above pre-pandemic trend levels. China’s property bubble is still deflating.

Read More Read More

Majors settle into ranges ahead of data-intensive week

Ahead of a week in which hard data will take precedence over central bank jawboning, equity indices are slightly softer, oil prices are holding firm, Treasury yields are flat, and all major currencies look firmly rangebound. Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore signs of dysfunction in the US political system: The dollar remains unbowed after the ratings firm Moody’s lowered its outlook on US debt to “negative” from “stable”, putting it on course toward joining Standard & Poor’s and Fitch in downgrading the country’s sovereign credit rating. And with newly-minted Speaker Mike Johnson’s can-kicking bill likely to face a vote...

Read More Read More