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USD

16 Nov 2023

Twists & turns

• Shaky sentiment. Growth concerns dampened risk sentiment. Bond yields slipped back, oil fell, & the AUD lost some ground after a strong few days.• Job trends. Signs the US labour market is cracking are increasing. In Australia employment positively surprised. Unemployment ticked up, but it is still low.• RBA rhetoric. Next week in addition to the meeting minutes (Tues), Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues) & giving a speech on the outlook (Weds). A slightly more negative tone across markets overnight with the run of soft US economic data supporting views growth momentum is slowing, and that...

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15 Nov 2023

Diverging macro trends

• Yield rebound. US yields partially recovered. But equities added to their gains & the USD consolidated. The backdrop helped the AUD hold its ground.• Global data. US PPI inflation undershot expectations, & US retail sales weakened. By contrast, momentum in China is improving & Australian wages quickened.• AU jobs. AU employment report today. Labour force lottery may be nosier than usual thanks to school holidays & impacts from the voice referendum. Following yesterday’s US inflation driven drop US bond yields partially reversed course overnight. The US 2yr and 10yr rates rose 8-9bps, however it hasn’t been enough to recoup...

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15 Nov 2023

Markets extend post-inflation gains

Markets are still roaring upward after US inflation slowed in October, removing a key impetus behind the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening campaign. Equity futures are pointing to further gains after stock markets added more than a trillion dollars in value during yesterday’s session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.47 percent after tumbling more than 19 basis points in the space of a day, and the dollar is flat after losing almost 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies. Investors now expect the central bank to cut rates four times in 2024, up from the three previously expected, with...

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14 Nov 2023

US CPI jolts markets

• US CPI. Lower than expected US inflation generated a sharp downward repricing in US rates. The plunge in bond yields weighed on the USD & boosted sentiment.• AUD jolt. The backdrop has seen the AUD rebound with the over 2% rise over the past 24hrs unwinding the bulk of last week’s fall.• Data flow. Q3 wages released today, as is the China data batch. US retail sales are due tonight with the Australian jobs report out tomorrow. All eyes were on the latest reading on US CPI inflation, and the lower than projected figures jolted markets back to life...

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14 Nov 2023

Rate expectations

This morning’s move in bonds might not rival the transition from Brosnan to Craig, but it has reordered the global currency landscape. Yields are lower across the curve, and the dollar is down against all of its rivals after a softer-than-anticipated October inflation print. The Federal Reserve is now expected to ease policy more quickly and dramatically than many of its major counterparts over the next year – with the European Central Bank standing as the lone exception.  But long-term yield differentials are still tilted overwhelmingly in the dollar’s favour. The difference between ten-year Treasury yields and our gross domestic...

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