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12 Dec 2023

US price growth fades, putting Fed in neutral

US consumer inflation softened as expected last month, but underlying price pressures remained stubbornly strong, reinforcing odds on a more neutral stance from the Federal Reserve at tomorrow’s meeting – and beyond.  According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 4.0 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was precisely in line with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release.  On a headline all-items...

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12 Dec 2023

Dollar fades into inflation print

Treasury yields are down, equity futures are up, and the dollar is retreating as traders take positions ahead of this morning’s inflation report. Economists think core consumer prices accelerated modestly while the headline measure remained broadly unchanged last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to begin unwinding its tight policy settings. Yesterday, the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations showed year-ahead inflation expectations falling by 0.2 percent to 3.4 percent, marking the lowest reading since April 2021. The yen is softer after bets on an abrupt change in the Bank of Japan’s policy framework suffered another setback last...

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11 Dec 2023

Will US inflation spring a surprise?

• Weaker JPY. Quiet markets, except for the JPY. Reports indicating the BoJ may not be in a rush to change policy has weighed on the JPY.• US CPI. US inflation tonight, ahead of this weeks Fed meeting. Signs inflation is easing should support views the next move will be to cut rates, albeit in 2024.• AUD anniversary. 40yrs since the float. Over this time AUD avg. $0.7550. But it is volatile. On avg. AUD has traded in a ~14cent range each year. It has been a quiet start to the week across most markets as participants marked time ahead...

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11 Dec 2023

Good vibes?

The vibecession* – the deep sense of economic pessimism among consumers, businesses, and the media that set in after the pandemic – might be over. Friday’s University of Michigan survey illustrated a massive improvement in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment, and the San Francisco Fed’s daily news sentiment index has turned strongly upward, putting the three-month moving average very close to positive territory: This isn’t to suggest that a real recession isn’t around the corner – we still think one probably is – but stories do play a powerful role in determining how markets and economic actors behave. A further...

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11 Dec 2023

Busy week beckons

Investors are kicking off the penultimate markets week of 2023 in a cautiously-optimistic fashion. Equity futures are pointing up, Treasury yields are incrementally higher, and the dollar is moving sideways amid mixed trading conditions. The Japanese yen is the only big mover on currency markets, trading with a decidedly-weaker bias this morning after a media report suggested a big policy change was unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. Citing “people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg said officials weren’t yet seeing the evidence of the sustained rise in wage growth needed to generate higher inflation over the long run. According...

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