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USD

29 Nov 2023

Canada’s Sahm Of All Fears

The Sahm Rule, named after former Federal Reserve and Council of Economic Advisors economist Claudia Sahm, indicates that a US recession has begun when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low during the prior 12 months. As outlined in a previous piece, it has not yet reached that threshold in the United States. In Canada, a slightly higher threshold is needed – calculations are performed differently in each country, and the level of unemployment is typically higher north of the border. Claudia addressed this in a 2021...

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29 Nov 2023

Rate cut bets solidify, pushing global markets higher

Markets are high on rate-cut hopium again this morning, with risk-sensitive assets extending a rally that began yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller set the stage for a policy pivot in early 2024. In a speech and interview, the erstwhile hawk said he was “increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent,”—indicating that the central bank’s rate-setting committee was unlikely to raise rates further—before suggesting that a “hard landing” wouldn’t necessarily be needed to prompt rate cuts. If the decline in inflation continues “for several more months… three months, four...

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28 Nov 2023

USD continues to lose its shine

• Fed rhetoric. Comments by the Fed’s Waller were in focus. Waller’s message supported the view that the next Fed move will probably be a rate cut.• Market repricing. The pull-back in US bond yields & the USD extended. EUR, NZD & AUD edged up to multi-month highs. USD/JPY lost some ground.• Trans-Tasman Events. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator due today. A slowdown in annual inflation is predicted. RBNZ expected to keep rates steady. The pull-back in bond yields and the USD extended overnight as expectations that the US Fed’s tightening cycle has ended were reinforced by policymaker comments. The...

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28 Nov 2023

Dollar steadies amid softer flows

The dollar is trading just above a three-month low and Treasury yields are creeping higher after yesterday’s drop. Benchmark ten-year rates tumbled more than 10 basis points during the session after the government auctioned $109 billion in short-term notes without triggering any turmoil, adding to a weaker-than-forecast new home sales number in convincing investors that markets and the economy are beginning to normalize after a prolonged sequence of unusual developments. The euro is inching lower in early trade, failing to gain traction after Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel tried pushing back against rate cut expectations. “It would be premature to lower...

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27 Nov 2023

Weaker USD supporting the AUD

• Softer tone. Equities lost some ground & bond yields dipped back overnight. Oil still on the backfoot & the USD remains under pressure.• AUD upswing. AUD’s positive run continued. AUD above ~$0.66 for the first time since early-August. But following its rapid rise it may face some local hurdles.• Local data. AU retail sales due today & monthly CPI released tomorrow. Did cash conscious households hold back their spending for the ‘Black Friday’ sales? It has been a rather subdued start to the week. As our chart shows, the VIX Index (the volatility measure for the S&P500) is at...

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