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USD

05 Feb 2024

Dollar Steamrolls Higher on Crumbling Rate Cut Bets 

Currency markets are retreating in the face of yet another dollar onslaught after Jerome Powell again warned markets not to expect a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, adding to Friday’s hotter-than-expected non-farm payrolls report in driving yields higher. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped almost 7 basis points higher and odds on a May rate cut fell to 70 percent when Chair Powell doubled down on comments made during last week’s post-decision press conference in an interview with CBS News ‘60 Minutes’ programme. In the appearance, aired last night, Powell warned that it was unlikely officials would reach the...

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04 Feb 2024

Markets jolted by US jobs

• US jobs. A much stronger than expected US jobs report jolted markets. US yields rose. This supported the USD & pushed the AUD back to the bottom of its range.• Too good to be true? Issues with seasonal factors & weather impacts could have made a good set of numbers look great. Payback likely over time.• RBA in focus. A new year & a new format. No policy change anticipated. But Governor Bullock could follow the Fed & BoE in pushing back on rate cut bets. Another day another burst of volatility on Friday with a bumper US jobs...

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02 Feb 2024

Dollar Trades Heavy Into Non-Farm Payrolls

Treasury yields and the dollar are slipping, with this morning’s non-farm payrolls report expected to show the job market slowing in January – clearing the way for more easing talk from Federal Reserve officials. Brace for whiplash price action. Statistical and weather-related factors could trigger a dramatic miss in the headline number, with the range of analyst estimates looking unusually wide – from 150,000 to 290,000 – and Bloomberg pointing out that a negative print is within the realm of possibility. Benchmark and population revisions could meaningfully lower trend rates, even if the underlying job market remains relatively stable. Traders...

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02 Feb 2024

Payrolls Crush Expectations, Slashing Odds on March Rate Cut

The US economy generated far stronger wage growth and more jobs than expected in January, driving yields and the dollar higher, while almost certainly taking a March rate cut off the table. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 353,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, remaining near historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6 percent month-over-month, up 4.5 percent year-over-year, solidly topping expectations for a 4.1 percent increase. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a 185,000-job gain, and the unemployment rate was seen moving up...

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01 Feb 2024

US jobs report on the radar

• Push-pull. US equities rose, bond yields dipped & the USD reversed course as markets focused on the looming easing cycle. AUD traded in a 1.1% range.• BoE holds. BoE mirrored the US Fed. Reference to further tightening was removed, but policymakers still not at the point to cut rates. GBP firmer.• US jobs. US labour market report in focus tonight. The data may generate another burst of FX volatility as it can influence US interest rate expectations. Another busy session overnight with participants also continuing to digest yesterday’s US Fed meeting. US equities bounced back (S&P500 +1.1%) with a...

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