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USD

22 Jan 2024

Weekly Chartbook, January 22

US growth and rate expectations keep rising. Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, % The greenback could pop on a Trump victory in New Hampshire. 1-year implied option volatility, at-the-money, 21-day moving average ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June. M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA Inflation might impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar. Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. exchange rates Markets have pulled easing expectations back, but the Bank of Canada setup remains dovish.  Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate,...

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22 Jan 2024

US Equity Markets Power Higher, Sustaining Dollar Strength

Equity markets are doing their best impression of Jason Kelce at a Buffalo Bills game, roaring into the week with strong gains in pre-open futures trading. Several major indices are flirting with record highs, commodity prices are up modestly, and Treasury yields are holding steady, with the ten-year paying close to 4.1 percent, up sharply from the beginning of the year. The dollar continues to outperform as Federal Reserve expectations shift rate differentials in a more favourable direction. After a series of hotter-than-anticipated data releases and a concerted jawboning effort from policymakers, markets are now assigning sub-40-percent odds to a...

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21 Jan 2024

Global events in focus

• Upbeat tone. US S&P500 closed at a record high. Base metals prices lifted. The USD drifted a little lower & the AUD clawed back a bit more ground.• Bond yields. US yields were, on net, little changed. Ahead of the blackout period a few Fed members spoke. Odds of a March rate cut below ~50%.• Event radar. Offshore, the macro focus this week will be on the BoJ, Q4 NZ CPI, the Eurozone PMIs, ECB decision, Q4 US GDP, & US PCE deflator. The relatively more upbeat mood in markets continued Friday with the tech sector inspired upswing in...

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18 Jan 2024

Markets calm down, but for how long?

• Improved sentiment. Equities took the latest uptick in the US 10yr yield in their stride. Limited FX moves with the AUD a relative outperformer for a change.• AU jobs. The ‘labour force lottery’ lived up to its volatile nature. Following a few strong months employment fell sharply but unemployment held steady.• Vol. to continue. The laundry list of uncertainties and macro/geopolitical flashpoints suggests the recent volatility could be a taste of things to come. Risk sentiment improved overnight with a further modest rise in long-end bond yields not causing the same market turbulence as it has recently. On the...

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18 Jan 2024

Dollar Gains Ease As Newsflow Slows

The dollar looks set to break its four-day winning streak, reversing some of its gains as traders and investors tiptoe back into risk-sensitive assets within a quieter economic data environment. North American equity futures are building up to a mildly-positive open, Treasury yields are slipping, and most currency majors are posting incremental gains. Oil prices are pushing higher after the US hit another 14 Houthi launch sites in Yemen, and Pakistan launched an aerial assault against targets in Iran. The attack comes after an Iranian missile strike on Pakistan-based militants on Tuesday, and threatens to escalate into a wider conflict...

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