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USD

11 Jan 2024

US CPI surprise

• US CPI. Data slightly higher than forecast. This triggered a bout of market volatility. After an initial jump in yields & the USD, & drop in equities, markets reversed.• Glass half full. US yields fell as some underlying inflation trends still support the outlook for eventual Fed policy easing, though a move in March looks too soon.• AUD vol. Further bouts of AUD volatility likely given where we are in the cycle. Since the float the AUD has, on average, traded in a ~13cent range each year. Markets endured a burst of volatility overnight in the wake of the...

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11 Jan 2024

Inflation Tops Expectations, Bets on Fed Easing Slip

Underlying US consumer inflation failed to soften as much as expected last month, reducing odds on rate cuts at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting and beyond According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.9 percent in December from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This slightly exceeded consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which were set closer to the 3.8-percent mark. On a headline all-items basis,...

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11 Jan 2024

Market Calm Remains Intact 

Treasury yields and the broad dollar are coming under selling pressure ahead of this morning’s inflation report, but position-taking looks relatively subdued. The report, due in less than half an hour, is expected to show the core consumer price index rising by 3.8 percent in the year to December, slowing from 4 percent in November and helping set the stage for rules-driven rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months. As we had suspected, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams attempted to rebuff these easing expectations in a speech yesterday, but markets paid him little...

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10 Jan 2024

Waiting on the US CPI

• Mixed markets. US equities rebounded & bond yields ticked up. Oil prices dipped. In FX, there were generally limited net moves. AUD near $0.67.• AU inflation. Headline inflation decelerated more than expected. But things are still a long way from target. RBA to lag its peers when rate cuts come through.• US CPI. December inflation data released tonight. Headline inflation forecast to nudge up, but core CPI predicted to slow. The data can generate USD volatility. Ahead of the US CPI release markets put in a mixed performance overnight. On the one side, equities bounced back with a tech...

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10 Jan 2024

Trading Ranges Narrow Ahead of US Inflation Print

Currency markets remain fundamentally directionless this morning as traders batten the hatches ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation report. The DXY dollar index is modestly softer, dragged lower by an incremental decline in Treasury yields, and equity futures are setting up for another day of sideways movement. Oil prices are lending the Canadian dollar some support, with both major benchmarks rising as tensions in the Middle East ratchet higher. Houthi rebels based in Yemen fired eighteen drones, two cruise missiles and a ballistic missile at shipping in the Red Sea during European trading hours, adding to the likelihood of an assault...

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