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Well-prepared markets take hotter-than-expected inflation print in stride

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, suggesting that January’s hotter-than-expected print signalled a re-acceleration in underlying inflation pressures, and raising the odds on a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve at next week’s policy meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.8 percent in February from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This slightly exceeded consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the...

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Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Release

The dollar’s selloff is slowing ahead of inflation numbers that could have a direct bearing on the policy outlook presented during next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Equity futures are trending upward, but Treasury yields are holding flat, and high-beta currencies like the Canadian dollar are coming under modest selling pressure as traders cut risk. February’s consumer price index is expected to show headline prices accelerating while the core measure slows – but considerable uncertainty remains around whether January’s hotter-than-expected numbers marked the beginning of a trend. If price growth remains stubbornly high, officials could reduce the number of expected rate...

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Another US CPI jolt looming?

• Mixed markets. Equities eased a little while bond yields nudged up overnight. Currencies were well contained. AUD consolidated near ~$0.6610.• US CPI. US inflation data in focus tonight. Will the February US CPI data confirm or disprove the January reading as an anomaly?• Expectations matter. Analysts look to be factoring in a greater chance of an upside surprise. This suggests a bigger market reaction could be to a lower print. Markets have had a fairly subdued start to the new week with attention on tonight’s US CPI inflation data (11:30pm AEDT). Global sharemarkets have been mixed. The US S&P500...

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Soft Landing Bets Remain Dominant Ahead of Inflation Data

The trade-weighted dollar is coming under renewed selling pressure this morning after last week’s events helped fortify expectations for a “soft landing” in the US economy. On Thursday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the Federal Reserve was “not far” from the level of confidence needed to cut rates. Friday’s jobs report showed headline job growth topping expectations, but revisions to the prior two months pointed to cooling momentum, and average hourly earnings saw their smallest month-on-month rise in two years. The pound and euro are defending last week’s advances in tight trading ranges. Sterling’s rally is losing...

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Will the AUD’s upswing continue?

• US jobs. Mixed US jobs report. Payrolls stronger than expected in February, but the underlying detail and downward revisions worked in the opposite direction.• FX trends. USD lost ground last week, with the JPY upswing due to increased BoJ rate hike pricing a factor. AUD had its best week (+1.5%) since mid-December.• Event radar. Globally attention will be on the latest US CPI report (Tues) with retail sales due later in the week. BoJ policy expectations will also be in focus. The latest read on the US labour market came and went on Friday night without generating too much...

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