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Canada’s Economy Slows as US Wage Gains Accelerate

The Canadian economy ran out of momentum toward the end of the first quarter, helping bolster market-implied odds on an imminent pivot to easing by the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product missing forecasts with a 0.2 percent expansion in February, following a downwardly-revised 0.5-percent expansion in January. The services sector led gains for a second month, but goods-producing industries flatlined. Just 12 of 20 economic sectors reported positive growth, down from the prior month’s 18. On a year-over-year basis, activity rose 0.8 percent, with the first quarter tracking toward a...

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Fed Fears Dampen Market Enthusiasm

Traders are moving onto a more cautious footing today as the prospect of a ‘hawkish hold’ at tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting comes into view. The dollar is trading on a modestly weaker footing against the yen and euro, but is maintaining strength relative to most other majors as interest rate differentials continue to provide lift. The Canadian dollar is softening ahead of a much-awaited gross domestic product report. Yields were left unmoved yesterday afternoon after the Treasury said it would borrow more than expected over the coming quarter. According to its updated quarterly refunding plans, the federal government will issue...

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USD/JPY & AUD/JPY: A line in the sand?

The wild ride in the JPY over the past few trading sessions has got the markets attention, and raised the question of whether Japanese authorities have (finally) intervened after firing several verbal warning shots? USD/JPY traded in a 3.6% range on Monday, around 4 times its historical norm, as it quickly plunged from a fresh multi-decade peak just above 160 before settling down (now ~156.70). Officials from Japan have kept markets guessing by not confirming or denying whether any action took place. But as the saying goes “if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it...

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JPY shenanigans

• JPY vol. USD/JPY dropped sharply yesterday. Intervention hasn’t been officially confirmed. Risk of action to prop up the weak JPY remains elevated.• AUD rise. AUD continues to grind higher. AUD is now more than 3% from its Israel/Iran risk aversion lows. China PMIs & AU retail sales due today.• Global data. Tonight, Eurozone GDP/CPI & the US Employment Cost Index (a broad wages gauge monitored by the US Fed) are released. It has been a relatively quiet start to the new week for most markets, with positive risk vibes continuing and swings in the JPY getting the most attention....

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Yen Rollercoaster Accelerates

The Japanese yen is stabilising after an extraordinarily-turbulent session. With markets closed for the Golden Week holiday, the exchange rate briefly crashed through the 160-per-dollar threshold for the first time since 1990, and then reversed almost five big figures higher when rumours of central bank intervention hit the wires early this morning – generating a total intra-day move that was the widest since December 2022, and among the top 20 dollar-yen trading ranges in modern history. Official confirmation hasn’t yet been provided, and evidence of the traditional “rate checking” activity from the Bank of Japan is lacking thus far, but...

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