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USD

21 Feb 2024

Fed Worried About Cutting Too Soon

At their late January meeting, Federal Reserve officials saw the potential negative consequences of cutting rates too soon as outweighing the risk of waiting too long – a balance of opinion that should help ratify market expectations for a hold at the March decision. According to a record of the January 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, “most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving sustainably down to 2 percent”. Officials noted a series of risks to the...

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21 Feb 2024

Markets Mark Time Into Fed Minutes, Nvidia Earnings

The dollar and Treasury yields are holding steady as markets await minutes from the Federal Reserve this afternoon. The record of January’s meeting is expected to show officials downplaying the need for dramatic policy adjustments in the coming months, with members likely to express a need for more evidence of disinflation before launching an easing cycle.   The Canadian dollar is trading below its 200-day moving average after yesterday’s softer-than-anticipated January inflation report raised market-implied odds on a rate cut coming before the Bank of Canada’s June meeting. Annual headline price growth fell to 2.9 percent from 3.4 percent prior, and...

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20 Feb 2024

AUD recovery continues

• US markets. US equities lost ground, while global trends exerted pressure on US yields. USD generally softer with the AUD’s grind up extending.• Yields fall. Lower Canadian inflation, ‘dovish’ BoE comments, & a cut to China’s 5yr lending rate weighed on global bond yields.• AU wages. Q4 wages released today. Annual growth expected to tick up. Faster wages can keep services inflation high & the RBA on a different path to its peers. A few market gyrations overnight. A pull-back in ‘big tech’ ahead of some earnings announcements dragged the US S&P500 (-0.7%) a little further from its all-time...

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20 Feb 2024

Dollar Steadies As Rate Cut Consensus Falters

Markets look set for a consolidative session as North American traders return to their desks after a long weekend. Equity futures are pointing to a modestly-negative open, ten-year Treasuries are yielding 4.27 percent, slightly below Friday’s close, and most major currency pairs are settling into ranges established earlier in the month.  The dollar is up almost 2.5 percent on a year-to-date basis after last week’s higher-than-expected consumer and producer price releases triggered a crisis of confidence among investors who had been betting on an imminent and inexorable easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. Overnight index swaps are pointing to 90...

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19 Feb 2024

Hold the line

• Holiday trade. Minimal moves with the US on holiday. European equities consolidated, while the major currencies remained range bound.• USD trends. ECB wage indicator & Canadian CPI tonight. US Fed commentary in focus later this week with markets now pricing in little chance of a March cut.• AUD drivers. February minutes released today & wage data due tomorrow. Signals from China suggest spending was positive during Lunar New Year. With the US closed for Presidents Day and newsflow limited there were minimal market moves overnight. European equities consolidated with the EuroStoxx600 (+0.2%) making its way up towards its January...

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