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USD

Dollar Strikes Back

Defying market expectations yet again, the greenback is trampling everything in its path as it heads toward a second week of gains. With global central banks on a synchronous easing trajectory, turbulence in China weighing on currencies across Asia, and US equity markets marching to new highs, rate differentials and global capital flows remain clearly dollar-supportive. Mexico’s peso is retracing some of its earlier losses, but remains weaker after the Banco de Mexico delivered a widely expected rate cut, and said it would take a data-dependent approach to future decisions. Voting by a 4-to-1 margin, policymakers yesterday opted to lower...

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Central banks starting to diverge?

• USD bounce. USD Index recouped yesterday’s post US Fed driven falls. Solid US data & developments in Europe weighed on the major European currencies.• Dovish Europeans. No more members of the BoE are calling for rate hikes. The Swiss National Bank became the first G10 FX central bank to cut this cycle.• AU jobs. Employment jumped & unemployment fell to a multi-month low. Supports our thinking the RBA will lag other central banks in the upcoming easing phase. FX markets have been whipped around a bit over the past couple of sessions on the back of central bank announcements...

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Central Bankers Turn Dovish, Markets Rally

Financial markets are in an ebullient mood after Federal Reserve officials said they still expect to cut rates three times this year, with disinflationary forces expected to resume in coming months. All three major North American equity indices closed at record highs and risk appetites roared back yesterday when Chair Powell avoided pushing back on easier financial conditions, and said recent price readings “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward two percent. I don’t think that story has changed”. Markets tend to focus on the shark closest...

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Fed Bets on “No Landing” Scenario, Lifts Long-Term Rate Projections

For a fifth consecutive meeting, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high, but policymakers raised inflation forecasts and lowered the number of rate cuts expected in the years ahead – suggesting that the risk of a re-acceleration in price growth continues to take precedence over signs of incipient economic weakness in driving the central bank’s reaction function.  In a broadly unchanged statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward...

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Will the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ change?

• Firmer USD. US equities higher & bond yields a little lower. A higher USD/JPY has boosted the USD. AUD & NZD have shed some more ground.• BoJ & RBA. BoJ hiked rates for the first time since 2007. But markets were underwhelmed. RBA tweaked its forward guidance to more ‘neutral’ language.• US Fed. Focus tomorrow morning will be on the US Fed’s forecasts & guidance. No change to 2024 projections could disappoint ‘hawkish’ expectations. Following a bit of volatility in yesterday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan changes (and RBA meeting) asset markets were more subdued overnight as...

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