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SGD

14 May 2023

Higher inflation expectations are a worry for the US Fed

• US inflation worries. Jump in US inflation expectations should catch the US Fed’s eye. Market pricing for multiple Fed rate cuts looks misplaced.• USD rebound. Higher yields supported the USD. US retail sales & Fed speakers in focus this week. Reduction in Fed rate cut pricing should be USD positive.• AUD slips back. The AUD has extended its slide. Local and offshore data should generate AUD vol. On net, we think the AUD can fall back further. Markets nervousness continued into the end of last week, with growth concerns, higher US inflation expectations, and US debt ceiling worries weighing...

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11 May 2023

Global growth worries re-emerge

• Growth worries. Global growth concerns re-emerged after a run of soft data, particularly out of China. Copper is at its lowest since late-November.• Risk off tone. Bond yields fell back & the USD strengthened. The Bank of England hiked again, but questions about how much more it will do remain.• AUD weaker. The negative backdrop has seen the AUD underperform. We expect this challenging environment to remain in place for a while yet. Concerns about global growth picked up overnight following a string of softer than anticipated data, particularly out of China. US equity markets eased modestly (S&P500 -0.2%),...

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10 May 2023

Has Fed rate cut pricing gone too far?

• US inflation. Some tentative signs the US inflation pulse is cooling. But core inflation remains a long way from the Fed’s target.• Fed pricing. Interest rate markets appear too eager to price in the Fed cutting cycle. Expectations that cuts could start as soon as July look misplaced.• AUD resistance. AUD ticked up, but again found resistance ~$0.68. Another Bank of England rate hike & hawkish tone could see AUD/GBP slip back. Mixed fortunes and choppy trade across markets, with the latest US inflation print in focus overnight. US equities endured some intra-day volatility but ended the day in...

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09 May 2023

US CPI in focus

• Cautious tone. US debt ceiling concerns, more signs of a global slowdown, & tonight’s US CPI inflation data are on investors minds.• US CPI. Markets now assuming no further Fed rate hikes & are factoring in over two cuts by year-end. Another high core inflation print could see rate cut bets pared back, supporting the USD.• Budget relief. Targeted measures aimed at low income households should provide some cost of living relief. But will it lead to more inflation down the track? Markets traded a bit more cautiously overnight with US debt ceiling concerns, more signs of a global...

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08 May 2023

AUD holding firm

• Calmer markets. US equities flat overnight, while oil & base metals edged a bit higher. US bond yields rose, with the AUD hovering just under ~$0.68• No credit crunch. Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey didn’t signal an imminent credit crunch. Rather, conditions are tightening inline with higher rates.• AUD events. Consumer sentiment, Q1 retail sales volumes, China trade data, & the Federal Budget released today. US CPI is out tomorrow night. A relatively quiet and uneventful start to the new week. Following the strong rise on Friday, US equities were flat overnight. By contrast, energy prices added to their...

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