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JPY

06 Sep 2023

USD remains high

• Higher for longer. Solid US services ISM data & rhetoric from central bankers has boosted bond yields. The USD remains near its recent highs.• AUD stabilises. After a difficult run the AUD has consolidated, albeit at low levels. Q2 GDP was on net a bit better than expected with population growth supportive.• Event radar. RBA Governor Lowe gives his last speech (“Some closing remarks”) today. China trade & US jobless claims data are also released. The USD has held its ground and continues to track near multi-month or year-to-date highs against the other major currencies. Data wise, the US...

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06 Sep 2023

Dollar steamrolls global markets

The almighty greenback is holding near its highest levels since March this morning as rising oil prices and slower disinflation fears force Treasury yields upward. The major North American equity bourses are under pressure and risk-sensitive currencies are licking their wounds.  Half-hearted defence efforts from policymakers are doing little to reverse the tide. The euro is up just 0.2 percent after European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot warned markets could be “underestimating” the likelihood of a rate hike at next week’s meeting, and his colleague Peter Kazimir said he would prefer to “deliver another 25 basis points” and...

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05 Sep 2023

AUD battered & bruised

• Stronger USD. Softer data out of China & higher US bond yields on the back of a lift in oil has supported the USD. The JPY, AUD, & NZD hit fresh 2023 lows.• AUD underperformance. The AUD has weakened. As expected the RBA kept rates on hold, though it retained its mild conditional tightening bias.• Relative expectations. We think a lot of positives are factored into the USD & negative AUD sentiment is high. AU Q2 GDP & US services ISM released today. The USD has strengthened over the past 24hrs. Softer than expected second tier China Caixin Services...

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05 Sep 2023

Lowered expectations

As a long-ago MadTV skit illustrated, lowered expectations can be the key to happiness – in dating, and in life. Something similar applies in the currency markets, where – to paraphrase the behavioural investing expert Michael Mauboussin – traders need to assess the level of expected performance embedded in exchange rates and then assess the likelihood of a revision in expectations. If expectations seem poorly aligned with future results, volatility is likely ahead. Our turnover-weighted measure of economic surprise indices, which represents the gap between consensus forecasts and official data across the major currencies relative to the United States, suggests...

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04 Sep 2023

All quiet ahead of the RBA

• US holidays. Limited market moves with the US on holiday. The major currencies are little changed from where they ended last week.• RBA today. No change in rates expected at Governor Lowe’s last meeting at the helm. But a mild conditional tightening bias is likely to be maintained.• AU GDP. Q2 GDP released tomorrow. A large inventory drawdown suggests there is a risk of a negative print. More inputs are released today. With the US on holiday and no major data or events of note elsewhere it has been a quiet start to the week for markets. European equities...

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