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JPY

08 Nov 2023

All talk, no action in markets

The dollar is staging a modest rebound after a cast of hawkish Fed speakers worked to put the rate cut genie back in the bottle yesterday. In a series of appearances, Bowman, Goolsbee and Logan all noted that inflation remained too high and the labour market was still healthy by pre-pandemic standards, and Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg there’d been “no discussion” of lowering interest rates among policymakers. Bets on at least four quarter-point cuts by early 2025 slipped slightly through the session, and Treasury yields retraced some of their gains. More Fedspeak is in the offing today: Traders are expecting...

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06 Nov 2023

RBA: will they or won’t they?

• Consolidation. Bond yields recovered a bit of lost ground, though moves across FX were limited. The USD is a little firmer. AUD slipped back under $0.65.• Another RBA hike? RBA in focus today. Most analysts expect another 25bp hike. Markets are less sure with a ~65% chance of a move factored in.• AUD vol. A hike combined with an ongoing tightening bias should be AUD positive. But a no change decision could trigger a larger knee-jerk AUD fall. After last weeks outsized market moves, it isn’t surprising to see that there was some modest payback overnight. US equities were...

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06 Nov 2023

Peak rates optimism delivers market relief

Markets are steadying after last week’s stunning rally. Equity and commodity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open, the dollar is trading near a six-week low, and Treasury yields are lower across the curve, with the ten-year trading at 4.59 percent after breaking the 5 percent barrier in late October. To sum up last week’s events: the Treasury said it would push less bond supply into markets than had been feared, the Federal Reserve turned slightly more dovish, and Friday’s jobs report showed labour markets showing clear signs of easing, giving the central bank further room to...

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05 Nov 2023

AUD revival continues

• US jobs. A softer US jobs report added to the downward pressure on US yields & the USD. Equities continue to bounce back. AUD at its highest since late-August.• RBA hike? Attention will be on tomorrow’s RBA decision. Most analysts are expecting a rate rise, but markets are less sure (~60% chance is priced in).• AUD vol. Market pricing points to AUD volatility post the RBA, with a ‘surprise’ no change likely to generate a larger knee-jerk AUD reaction, in our view. Markets were fixated on the latest US jobs report on Friday night. The weaker than predicted figures...

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02 Nov 2023

Jobs, jobs, jobs

• Yields fall. Long end yields continued to decline. This has boosted equities. The AUD has edged up to the top of its recent range.• Central banks. The BoE held rates steady. Outside of the RBA, expectations tightening cycles are nearing their end continue to build.• US jobs in focus. Soft data would reinforce the slide in yields & the USD. But this isn’t guaranteed. A positive surprise could see recent moves reverse. The pull-back in long-end bond yields continued overnight as expectations central bank tightening cycles (outside of the RBA) are nearing their end continue to build. The US...

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