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JPY

03 Oct 2023

Markets JOLTED again

• US yields higher. Positive US job openings pushed US yields higher. This helped the USD & weighed on risk sentiment. AUD slipped below ~$0.63.• USD/JPY volatility. After moving above ~150 USD/JPY tumbled. FX intervention wasn’t confirmed. The moves helped the USD stabilise.• RBA & RBNZ. No change from the RBA yesterday. RBNZ meets today with rates expected to be held steady. AUD/NZD is near levels last traded in late-May. Familiar themes and trends were on show again overnight. A stronger US JOLTS (i.e. job openings) report generated another jump up in bond yields and some further USD strength which...

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03 Oct 2023

Yield surge punishes global markets

Tumult in Treasury markets is worsening after the US manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization and several Federal Reserve officials doubled down on “higher for longer” rhetoric. Ten-year yields topped 4.7 percent in yesterday’s session for the first time since October 2007 – and are holding there – while their inflation-adjusted equivalents are sitting near 2.32 percent The dollar is steamrolling through currency markets, sitting near a 10-month trade-weighted high as its major counterparts retreat. Equites are – predictably – softer, crude prices are down, and implied volatility measures are pushing upward once again. Governor Michelle Bowman – one of...

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03 Oct 2023

RBA: New governor, same result

Unsurprisingly the RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.1% for the 4th straight meeting. This was the first with new Governor Bullock at the helm. But her predecessor continues to cast a long shadow. The October post meeting statement appears very similar to the last one provided by former Governor Lowe. According to the RBA the policy tightening put through is “working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy”, with the decision to hold firm again in October providing “further time to assess” the impacts of the jump up in interest rates. Given...

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02 Oct 2023

Markets rise on interrupted shutdown

US markets are gaining this morning after the government reached a last-minute deal to avert a shutdown – but with the same brinksmanship likely to play out again in less than eight weeks, we’re not sure how long the momentum can last. Equity futures are rising ahead of the open, Treasury yields are pushing toward Friday’s highs, and the dollar is climbing against its major Asian and European rivals. In a surprising and confusing late-Saturday development, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy – who had for weeks refused to consider a similar bipartisan measure crafted in the Senate – agreed to table...

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28 Sep 2023

Up and away

Another round of stronger-than-expected US activity data combined with surging oil prices to send Treasury yields roaring to new cyclical peaks yesterday, triggering yet another spike in the dollar. Durable goods orders surprised with a 0.2-percent gain in August – markets had expected a -0.5 percent contraction – and non-defence capital spending climbed 0.9 percent, suggesting that the business investment cycle remained in relatively robust health. West Texas Intermediate prices briefly jumped above the $95 mark after the Energy Information Administration said crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub fell to less than 22 million barrels, nearing tank bottoms...

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