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JPY

18 Oct 2023

Will Fed Chair Powell change his tune?

• Shaky sentiment. Renewed market wobbles as Middle East tensions were compounded by higher bond yields. Stocks fell & the USD was a little firmer.• AUD vol. AUD whipped around. Gains on the back of the better than expected China data & ‘hawkish’ tone from the RBA unwound overnight.• Upcoming events. AU jobs report released today. US jobless claims are due tonight, but more focus will be on a speech by Fed Chair Powell. Some renewed wobbles in markets overnight with Middle East tensions compounded by another move up in bond yields. Stocks retreated (US S&P500 -1.3%), while oil (WTI...

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18 Oct 2023

Geopolitical tensions worsen, supporting safe havens

Markets are back in risk-off mode after an explosion at a hospital in Gaza shifted the calculus around President Biden’s trip to the Middle East, and raised the risk of a wider conflagration. Oil prices are rising as Iran calls for an embargo against Israel, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, and the dollar is maintaining altitude. Flight-to-safety flows are likely to subside through the session, but Treasury yields are trading near the highest levels since 2006 after yesterday’s hotter-than-expected retail sales number raised the likelihood of more monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Cumulative futures-implied odds...

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16 Oct 2023

Shifting sentiment

• Positive vibes. Equities & bond yields rose, & the USD eased as diplomatic efforts aimed at avoiding a wider Middle East conflict calmed nerves.• AUD bounce. The backdrop supported the AUD. RBA minutes released today. China data due tomorrow, with new RBA Gov. Bullock also speaking.• US data. US retail sales & industrial production data released tonight. The US economy is consumer driven. There are signs spending is cooling. A reversal of fortunes overnight with financial markets starting the week on a more positive footing. In terms of the Middle East diplomatic efforts aimed at avoiding a wider conflict,...

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16 Oct 2023

Jaw-jaw helps offset war-war

Good morning and happy Monday. Four major forces are acting on currency markets ahead of the North American open: Last week’s flight to safety is losing momentum as world leaders make a concerted push to minimize spillover risks ahead of an expected Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Both major oil benchmarks are giving back some of Friday’s gains, Treasury yields are renewing their push higher and equity futures are pointing to a softer open after US president Joe Biden said he supported efforts to eliminate the terrorists who attacked Israel, while noting that “Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas...

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15 Oct 2023

Risky times

• Risk aversion. Middle East developments have weighed on risk sentiment. Bond yields & equities lower, while gold, oil, & the USD have been supported.• AUD pressure. The backdrop is pressuring the AUD. But we think it is starting to look stretched on several metrics. A lot of ‘bad news’ could already be priced.• Event radar. US retail sales, China data, AU jobs, & NZ CPI due. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks, & there is a conga line of Fed speakers including Chair Powell. Events in the Middle East have been front of mind for markets. Risks that the conflict is...

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