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JPY

18 Mar 2024

March Madness Begins

Well, madness for economics nerds anyway. Equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady near the 4.3 percent mark, and most major currency pairs are range-bound ahead of a week in which central banks in Australia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States will deliver rate decisions. Tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan could raise rates into positive territory for the first time since 2007. A significant share of market participants expect policymakers to lift the overnight and uncollateralized call rates by 10 basis points and end the yield...

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17 Mar 2024

Central banks in focus

• Waiting game. Ahead of this week’s key events FX markets consolidated on Friday. USD index tracked sideways. AUD near its 200-day moving average.• Event radar. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE decisions due this week. China data released today, while NZ GDP & AU jobs due on Thursday.• Central banks. Further bursts of volatility probable. Will the BoJ hike rates for the first time since 2007? Will the US Fed continue to forecast 3 cuts in 2024? With one eye on this week’s central bank meetings global markets largely consolidated on Friday. US bond yields ticked up slightly (the...

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15 Mar 2024

Price Action Muted As Inflation Worries Re-Emerge

Chastened investors are heading into the weekend on a cautious footing after two inflation readings suggested that price pressures in the US economy remain stubbornly elevated, further undermining hopes the Federal Reserve could soon begin cutting rates. Markets tumbled during yesterday’s session after data showed producer prices increased in February by the most in six months as the cost of goods like gasoline and food surged. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the producer price index for final demand increased 0.6 percent from January, up 1.6 percent from a year earlier, marking the fastest annual advance since September. Consumer...

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14 Mar 2024

US stagflation vibes

• Stagflation worries. US retail sales underwhelm while stronger producer prices raised concerns about the inflation outlook. US yields rose. USD a bit firmer.• AUD slips. Higher US yields exerted pressure on the AUD. But the intra-day swing was below average. Focus today will be on Japanese wage outcomes.• Upcoming events. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE meet next week. Will the BoJ finally move? On top of that the China activity data & AU jobs report are due. A few wobbles across risk markets overnight as “stagflation vibes” from the latest US retail sales and Producer Price inflation data...

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14 Mar 2024

Currency Volatility Flattens In Run-Up To Fed Meeting

Happy Pi Day, one of the days on which markets behave irrationally. The other days are… all of them. The dollar is holding steady ahead of the last pieces of data that could sway policymakers at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Treasury yields are essentially unchanged, with the ten-year yield up roughly 11 basis points this week, equity futures are setting up for modest gains at the open, and most major currencies remain caught within almost-invisible trading ranges. Numbers due for release this morning should show strong consumer demand keeping inflation pressures at a low simmer. Consensus estimates suggest that...

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