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JPY

16 May 2024

China data in focus

• Partial unwind. Quieter markets overnight. US equities ease, bond yields rebounded, & the USD was a bit firmer. AUD gave back some ground.• AU jobs. Employment positive, but unemployment ticked up more than predicted. Seasonality may have been at play, as it was earlier in the year.• China data. RBA still looks set to lag its peers. Yield differentials should be AUD supportive. As would signs of improvement in China’s growth pulse. Compared to the post US CPI moves a day ago markets were a bit quieter overnight with some retracement coming through. After touching a fresh record high...

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16 May 2024

Soft Landing Hopes Drive Dollar Lower

Global stock markets are holding near record highs, Treasury yields are lower across the curve, and the dollar is in retreat as investors bring forward expectations for policy easing from the Federal Reserve. Data out yesterday morning showed core consumer prices advanced at the slowest annual rate in three years last month, while underlying retail sales shrank, suggesting that the world’s largest economy is losing momentum in the face of still-restrictive interest rates. The core consumer price index climbed 3.6 percent in April from a year ago, marking the weakest pace since April 2021, and “control group” retail sales slumped...

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15 May 2024

US inflation jolts the AUD

• Market jolt. A slowdown in US inflation & weaker retail sales revived Fed rate cut expectations. US yields & the USD lower. Equities & AUD higher.• AUD outperformance. The backdrop & diverging monetary policy expectations have boosted the AUD. AUD/USD at a ~4-month high.• AU jobs. The monthly jobs report is due today. There have been some wild swings in recent months. A solid report could give the AUD more support. The latest read on US CPI inflation and retail sales took center stage overnight. And as we had been flagging in our recent Market Briefings and weekly Currency...

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15 May 2024

Bulls Stampede Into Inflation Data

Market optimism is rising ahead of a key US inflation report that is expected to show price pressures softening on a sequential basis in April. Our summary of updated estimates provided by the biggest global banks and investment firms suggests that the headline basket is seen rising 0.4 percent month over month, bringing the annual change down to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent in March. The core measure is believed to have climbed 0.3 percent, falling to 3.6 percent from 3.8 percent in the prior month. Traders are positioning for an asymmetric market reaction. A strong print could be seen...

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13 May 2024

Calm before the US CPI storm?

• Quiet start. Minimal moves in equities, bonds & FX overnight. AUD little changed despite the jump in base metal prices.• AU Budget. A lot has been pre-announced. Relief measures look set to be designed to lower near-term headline CPI. But this may not impact core CPI.• US & UK data. Ahead of the US CPI report, US Producer Prices are released tonight. Fed Chair Powell also speaks. In the UK, jobs/wages data is due. A quiet start to the new week. The limited news flow has kept markets range bound. The US S&P500 ended the session unchanged. US bond...

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