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JPY

23 Jan 2024

More policy support in China?

• Mixed markets. US equities a little higher, with long-end bond yields also rising. USD firmer against EUR & GBP. AUD consolidated near ~$0.6580.• China stimulus. Reports of measures aimed at supporting equities gave Chinese stocks & CNH a shot in the arm. BoJ holds steady but gave a ‘hawkish’ hint.• NZ CPI. Headline NZ inflation slowed as expected, but domestic inflation remains sticky. AUD/NZD dipped post this mornings NZ CPI release. A varied performance across markets over the past day, though most moves have been modest. US equities ended the day higher. The S&P500 (+0.3%) is just shy of...

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22 Jan 2024

Will the BoJ hold the line?

• Subdued markets. US equities added to their gains, bond yields drifted a bit lower, & the USD ticked up. AUD slipped back towards ~$0.6570.• BoJ decision. No changes by the BoJ anticipated today. But there is always scope for a surprise. If it were to occur, the ‘under-valued’ JPY would lift.• NZ inflation. Q4 NZ CPI due tomorrow. Inflation slowdown set to extend. A large drop could reinforce RBNZ rate cut views, a support for AUD/NZD. It has been quiet start to the week across markets. This isn’t surprising given the lack of economic data releases and with members...

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22 Jan 2024

US Equity Markets Power Higher, Sustaining Dollar Strength

Equity markets are doing their best impression of Jason Kelce at a Buffalo Bills game, roaring into the week with strong gains in pre-open futures trading. Several major indices are flirting with record highs, commodity prices are up modestly, and Treasury yields are holding steady, with the ten-year paying close to 4.1 percent, up sharply from the beginning of the year. The dollar continues to outperform as Federal Reserve expectations shift rate differentials in a more favourable direction. After a series of hotter-than-anticipated data releases and a concerted jawboning effort from policymakers, markets are now assigning sub-40-percent odds to a...

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21 Jan 2024

Global events in focus

• Upbeat tone. US S&P500 closed at a record high. Base metals prices lifted. The USD drifted a little lower & the AUD clawed back a bit more ground.• Bond yields. US yields were, on net, little changed. Ahead of the blackout period a few Fed members spoke. Odds of a March rate cut below ~50%.• Event radar. Offshore, the macro focus this week will be on the BoJ, Q4 NZ CPI, the Eurozone PMIs, ECB decision, Q4 US GDP, & US PCE deflator. The relatively more upbeat mood in markets continued Friday with the tech sector inspired upswing in...

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18 Jan 2024

Markets calm down, but for how long?

• Improved sentiment. Equities took the latest uptick in the US 10yr yield in their stride. Limited FX moves with the AUD a relative outperformer for a change.• AU jobs. The ‘labour force lottery’ lived up to its volatile nature. Following a few strong months employment fell sharply but unemployment held steady.• Vol. to continue. The laundry list of uncertainties and macro/geopolitical flashpoints suggests the recent volatility could be a taste of things to come. Risk sentiment improved overnight with a further modest rise in long-end bond yields not causing the same market turbulence as it has recently. On the...

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