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JPY

Calm before the US CPI storm?

• Quiet start. Minimal moves in equities, bonds & FX overnight. AUD little changed despite the jump in base metal prices.• AU Budget. A lot has been pre-announced. Relief measures look set to be designed to lower near-term headline CPI. But this may not impact core CPI.• US & UK data. Ahead of the US CPI report, US Producer Prices are released tonight. Fed Chair Powell also speaks. In the UK, jobs/wages data is due. A quiet start to the new week. The limited news flow has kept markets range bound. The US S&P500 ended the session unchanged. US bond...

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Currencies Stabilise as Inflation Data Looms

Foreign exchange markets are holding steady this morning as traders take cover ahead of a series of critical inflation reports that could determine the outlook for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. The dollar is little changed against its major rivals, Treasury yields are moving sideways, and North American equity futures are pointing to incremental gains at the open. Today’s Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed is likely to echo Friday’s equivalent from the University of Michigan, with inflation expectations rising toward a six-month high. Household views on inflation tend to follow changes in gas...

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Trading Ranges Shrink As Information Flow Slows

Risk appetite looks subdued across most asset classes this morning as the data cadence slows and investors keep a wary eye on funding strains in US government debt markets. Equity futures are edging lower ahead of the North American open, yields are holding gains achieved when the US Treasury’s latest 10-year auction met with weak demand in yesterday’s session, and the dollar is advancing against its major rivals. The Treasury is set to sell another $25 billion in 30-year bonds this afternoon. As expected, the Bank of England left its major policy settings unchanged and set the stage for a...

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European central banks leading the way?

• Quiet markets. US equities consolidated, while 10yr yields ticked up. USD a touch firmer. AUD’s post RBA pull-back extended a bit further.• European divergence. Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates. This follows the Swiss National Bank. Will the ECB be next? BoE tonight. It may be more ‘dovish’.• Global activity. China trade data due today. Various leading indicators for global industrial activity, like the copper price, have been improving. Fairly narrow ranges in global markets overnight with limited new information coming through to shake things up. US equities consolidated with the S&P500 ending the day unchanged after moving higher over the...

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Fedspeak Propels Dollar Higher

Treasury yields and the dollar jumped by the most in a week during yesterday’s session when Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expected the central bank to keep rates elevated for an “extended period of time” as it waits for price growth to slow on a sustained basis. Speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference, he warned “If inflation starts to tick back down or we saw some marked weakening in the labour market then that might cause us to cut back on interest rates’” but “If we get convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at...

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