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JPY

18 Jun 2024

Hawkish RBA vibes support the AUD

• Upbeat tone. Negative US economic news was good news for markets. Softer US retail sales weighed on bond yields which in turn boosted risk assets.• RBA meeting. No change in rates but the RBA’s tone was more ‘hawkish’. Inflation risks remain. We think RBA cuts still look some time away.• AUD outperformance. The backdrop has supported the AUD. AUD/EUR is at a multi-month high, while AUD/JPY is at levels last traded in 2013. The positive vibes continued overnight. Easing concerns about the upcoming French parliamentary elections was compounded by softer US retail sales. The underwhelming US economic news was...

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17 Jun 2024

Will the RBA hold the line?

• Positive vibes. Concerns about the upcoming French election settled down. Equities rose, as did bond yields, with EUR also a little higher.• RBA today. No change from the RBA anticipated. It is likely to reiterate that it isn’t ruling anything in or out. The first RBA cut isn’t priced until mid-2025.• Global data. Yesterday’s China data batch was mixed. Tonight, US retail sales are released. A modest rebound is US consumer spending is predicted. A bit more of a positive tone in markets at the start of the new week. Concerns in Europe about the upcoming French parliamentary elections...

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17 Jun 2024

European Political Uncertainty Weakens Risk Appetite

Currency markets are struggling to gain traction as political turmoil weighs on the euro, sustaining safe haven flows into the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. Broader conditions look mixed, with North American equity futures little changed, bond yields ticking upward, crude prices nudging higher, and raw industrial commodity benchmarks slipping.  Ten-year French government bonds are still yielding roughly 80 basis points more than their German counterparts as uncertainty remains elevated ahead of the country’s two-round legislative election, which is set to conclude on July 7. Both Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the left-wing Popular Front parties have made substantial advances...

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16 Jun 2024

European political jitters

• European concerns. French political risks weighing on European assets. EUR near a ~1-month low. This, and a softer JPY, has supported the USD.• AUD cross-currents. Backdrop has seen AUD drift back. But it isn’t all one-way. AUD/EUR near the upper end of its 2024 range.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues). Offshore, in addition to French politics, markets focused on the China data, US retail sales, Fed speakers, BoE meeting, & PMIs. Nerves about the potential outcome of the upcoming French parliamentary elections (30 June & 7 July) continued to dampen sentiment in Europe at the end of last week....

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14 Jun 2024

Euro Crisis Flashbacks Hit Markets

Traders are in sell-first, ask-questions-later mode and the euro is coming under sustained pressure as negative rhetoric surrounding the upcoming French election heats up. The dollar and yen are climbing on safe-haven demand, Treasury yields are inching lower, and North American equity futures are looking subdued ahead of what could evolve into a risk-off day in broader financial markets. Franco-German bond spreads are blowing out after French finance minister Bruno le Maire warned a victory for left wing parties in the upcoming snap election could see the country exiting the European Union, triggering “economic collapse” and a “guaranteed downgrade” from...

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