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JPY

21 Feb 2023

Silent night

Unsurprisingly, with the US President’s Day holiday and no major news across the other regions, it has been a quiet start to the week. European equities eased back slightly, tracking the modest falls in US S&P500 futures (now -0.3%) with the US Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate outlook continuing to sink in. European bond yields ticked up 2-5bps across their respective curves, with some ‘hawkish’ comments from the ECB’s Rehn playing a role. According to Rehn inflation is “excessively high”, further rate hikes by the ECB beyond March seem “logical”, and the bank shouldn’t rush to start discussing rate cuts. The...

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17 Feb 2023

Almighty Dollar Reigns Supreme

The greenback is reading its own obituary once again, defying early January’s almost-universally bearish sentiment to surge toward a six-week trade-weighted high. Data released yesterday showed initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 194,000 last week, pushing the four-week average to 189,500. Despite widespread fears of a slowdown, employers continue to add jobs at a pace consistent with strong economic growth, and laid-off workers are finding new roles quickly. This comes on top of a slew of data releases that point to robust growth and strong underlying inflation pressures in the US economy. Employers added more than half...

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14 Feb 2023

Roses are Red, Violets are Blue, We’re Watching Inflation, and You Should Too

Happy inflation day to all of you hopeless romantics out there. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its consumer price index for January at 8:30 am. Economists think price growth will cool for a seventh consecutive month, with the headline measure increasing 6.2% year-over-year, down from 6.5% in December, and well below the 9.1% pace hit in June. The core measure is seen rising 5.4%, maintaining the prior month’s momentum. Markets seem comfortable with these expectations. Signs of nervousness disappeared over yesterday’s session, leaving equity futures up, Treasury yields down, and the dollar on the defensive. But...

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10 Feb 2023

Currency Market Sub-Plots Lift Greenback

The dollar is creeping upward as conflicting cross-currents in the foreign exchange markets contrive to keep most majors tightly rangebound. Yields are broadly flat, and equity futures are setting up for a slightly weaker open. Mexico’s Banxico yesterday became the second central bank—after the Reserve Bank of Australia—to defy increasingly-dovish policy expectations, sending the peso soaring by raising rates by half a percentage point in a move that surprised virtually every observer. In a statement accompanying the decision, policymakers said “Given the dynamics of core inflation, on this occasion it is necessary to continue with the magnitude of the reference...

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09 Feb 2023

Markets Advance as News Flow Ebbs

With the number of US data releases slowing to a trickle and next week’s all-important inflation print looming ahead, risk assets are inching higher, leaving currency markets largely rangebound. Equity futures are advancing while yields come under pressure – translating into a slightly weaker dollar.  Implied volatility levels are coming back down, suggesting that a post-jobs report bounce in yields has helped reset market positioning to more neutral levels – reducing the perceived risk of a big washout around the January consumer price index release. Implied terminal rate expectations are holding between 5.1% and 5.2%, up from the 4.9% area...

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